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DOI10.1007/s10661-019-7583-0
Non-parametric tests and multivariate analysis applied to reported dengue cases in Brazil
de Oliveira-Junior, Jose Francisco1; Gois, Givanildo2; da Silva, Elania Barros3; Teodoro, Paulo Eduardo4; Johann, Jerry Adriani5; Silva Junior, Carlos Antonio6
发表日期2019
ISSN0167-6369
EISSN1573-2959
卷号191期号:7
英文摘要

Dengue is among the largest public health problems in Brazil. Reported dengue cases via DATASUS were correlated with reanalysis data from NCEP (rainfall and air temperature) and Brazil's population data (2000 and 2010) from 1994 to 2014. The aim of this study was to evaluate relational patterns between climate variables together with population data from the last census and reported cases of dengue in Brazil from 1994 to 2014 by using statistical techniques. Several statistical methods [descriptive and exploratory statistics; simple and multiple linear regressions; Mann-Kendall (MK), Run, and Pettit nonparametric tests; and multivariate statistics via cluster analysis (CA)] were applied to time series. The highest percentages of Dengue cases were in Brazil's Southeast (47.14%), Northeast (29.86%), and Central West (13.01%). Upon CA of the Brazilian regions, three homogeneous dengue groups were formed: G(1) (North and Central West), G(2) (Southeast and Northeast), and G(3) (South). Run testing indicated that the time series is homogenous and persistence free. MK testing showed a nonsignificant trend of increase of dengue cases in 23 states with positive trends and in four states with negative trends of Brazil. A significant increase in the magnitude of dengue at the regional level was recorded in the North, Southeast, South, and Central West regions. Statistical methods showed that dengue variability in Brazil is cyclical (2- to 3-year cycles), but not repetitive of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the moderate, strong, and neutral categories. ENSO interferes with the action of weather systems, changing or intensifying rainfall and air temperatures in Brazil. The population increase in recent decades and the lack of effective public policies together with the action of ENSO contributed to the increase in dengue cases reported in Brazil.


WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/99979
作者单位1.Univ Fed Alagoas UFAL, Maceio, Alagoas, Brazil;
2.UFF, Volta Redonda, RJ, Brazil;
3.Secretaria Municipal Saude, Prefeitura Municipal Capela, Capela, Alagoas, Brazil;
4.Univ Fed Mato Grosso Sul UFMS, Chapadao Do Sul, MS, Brazil;
5.Univ Estadual Oeste Parana UNIOESTE, Cascavel, Parana, Brazil;
6.Univ Estado Mato Grosso UNEMAT, Sinop, Mato Grosso, Brazil
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
de Oliveira-Junior, Jose Francisco,Gois, Givanildo,da Silva, Elania Barros,et al. Non-parametric tests and multivariate analysis applied to reported dengue cases in Brazil[J],2019,191(7).
APA de Oliveira-Junior, Jose Francisco,Gois, Givanildo,da Silva, Elania Barros,Teodoro, Paulo Eduardo,Johann, Jerry Adriani,&Silva Junior, Carlos Antonio.(2019).Non-parametric tests and multivariate analysis applied to reported dengue cases in Brazil.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,191(7).
MLA de Oliveira-Junior, Jose Francisco,et al."Non-parametric tests and multivariate analysis applied to reported dengue cases in Brazil".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 191.7(2019).
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