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DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.056
Reducing uncertainty of design floods of two-component mixture distributions by utilizing flood timescale to classify flood types in seasonally snow covered region
Yan, Lei1,2; Xiong, Lihua1; Ruan, Gusong3; Xu, Chong-Yu1,4; Yan, Pengtao5; Liu, Pan1
发表日期2019
ISSN0022-1694
EISSN1879-2707
卷号574页码:588-608
英文摘要

The conventional flood frequency analysis typically assumes the annual maximum flood series (AMFS) result from a homogeneous flood population. However, actually AMFS are frequently generated by distinct flood generation mechanisms (FGMs), which are controlled by the interaction between different meteorological triggers (e.g., thunderstorms, typhoon, snowmelt) and properties of underlying surface (e.g., antecedent soil moisture and land-cover types). To consider the possibility of two FGMs in flood frequency analysis, researchers often use the two-component mixture distributions (TCMD) without explicitly linking each component distribution to a particular FGM. To improve the mixture distribution modeling in seasonally snow covered regions, an index called flood timescale (FT), defined as the ratio of the flood volume to peak value and chosen to reflect the relevant FGM, is employed to classify each flood into one of two types, i.e., the snowmelt-induced long duration floods and the rainfall-induced short-duration floods, thus identifying the weighting coefficient of each component distribution beforehand. In applying the FT-based TCMD to model the AMPS of 34 watersheds in Norway, ten types of mixture distributions are considered. The design floods and associated confidence intervals are calculated using parametric bootstrap method. The results indicate that the FT-based TCMD model reduces the uncertainty in the estimation of design floods for high return periods by up to 40% with respect to the traditional TCMD. The improved predictive ability of the FT-based TCMD model is attributed to its explicit recognition of distinct generation mechanisms of floods, thereby being able to identify the weighting coefficient and FGM of each component distribution without optimization.


WOS研究方向Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
来源期刊JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/99821
作者单位1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China;
2.Hebei Univ Engn, Coll Water Conservancy & Hydropower, Handan 056021, Peoples R China;
3.Norwegian Water Resources & Energy Directorate NV, Oslo, Norway;
4.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, POB 1022, N-0315 Oslo, Norway;
5.Xingtai Univ, Sch Phys & Elect Engn, Xingtai 054001, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Yan, Lei,Xiong, Lihua,Ruan, Gusong,et al. Reducing uncertainty of design floods of two-component mixture distributions by utilizing flood timescale to classify flood types in seasonally snow covered region[J],2019,574:588-608.
APA Yan, Lei,Xiong, Lihua,Ruan, Gusong,Xu, Chong-Yu,Yan, Pengtao,&Liu, Pan.(2019).Reducing uncertainty of design floods of two-component mixture distributions by utilizing flood timescale to classify flood types in seasonally snow covered region.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,574,588-608.
MLA Yan, Lei,et al."Reducing uncertainty of design floods of two-component mixture distributions by utilizing flood timescale to classify flood types in seasonally snow covered region".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 574(2019):588-608.
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