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DOI10.3390/atmos10060321
Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR
Doutreloup, Sebastien1; Kittel, Christoph1; Wyard, Coraline2; Belleflamme, Alexandre3; Amory, Charles1; Erpicum, Michel1; Fettweis, Xavier1
发表日期2019
ISSN2073-4433
卷号10期号:6
英文摘要

The first aim of this study is to determine if changes in precipitation and more specifically in convective precipitation are projected in a warmer climate over Belgium. The second aim is to evaluate if these changes are dependent on the convective scheme used. For this purpose, the regional climate model Modele Atmospherique Regional (MAR) was forced by two general circulation models (NorESM1-M and MIROC5) with five convective schemes (namely: two versions of the Bechtold schemes, the Betts-Miller-Janji scheme, the Kain-Fritsch scheme, and the modified Tiedtke scheme) in order to assess changes in future precipitation quantities/distributions and associated uncertainties. In a warmer climate (using RCP8.5), our model simulates a small increase of convective precipitation, but lower than the anomalies and the interannual variability over the current climate, since all MAR experiments simulate a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower atmospheric layers, favoring more stable conditions. No change is also projected in extreme precipitation nor in the ratio of convective precipitation. While MAR is more sensitive to the convective scheme when forced by GCMs than when forced by ERA-Interim over the current climate, projected changes from all MAR experiments compare well.


WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊ATMOSPHERE
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/98204
作者单位1.Univ Liege, Climatol Lab, Dept Geog, UR SPHERES, B-4000 Liege, Belgium;
2.Inst Sci Serv Publ Wallonie, 200 Rue Chera, B-4000 Liege, Belgium;
3.AGROPTIMIZE, 185 Ave Longwy, B-6700 Arlon, Belgium
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Doutreloup, Sebastien,Kittel, Christoph,Wyard, Coraline,et al. Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR[J],2019,10(6).
APA Doutreloup, Sebastien.,Kittel, Christoph.,Wyard, Coraline.,Belleflamme, Alexandre.,Amory, Charles.,...&Fettweis, Xavier.(2019).Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR.ATMOSPHERE,10(6).
MLA Doutreloup, Sebastien,et al."Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR".ATMOSPHERE 10.6(2019).
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