气候变化领域集成服务门户

This paper presents a method for time-dependent reliability analysis, future performance predictions and optimum maintenance strategy of coastal flood defences such as earth sea dykes subjected to changing operation conditions. The reliability analysis takes into account both the changes of hydraulic variables such as water level and wave height due to climate change and the deterioration of structural capacities such as crest freeboard loss and soil seepage length degradation over time. A probabilistic time-dependent semi-Markov process is adopted for estimating the transition probabilities on the basis of available field data through routine inspections and expert judgements. Limit state equations are established for evaluating time-dependent probability of failures associated with wave overtopping through the flood defence crest and piping in the underlying water conductive soils. A multi-objective optimisation method is then employed to find optimum solution space for asset inspection and maintenance by minimising both costs for inspection and annual risk of structural failures. The results for a typical earth sea dyke at Thames Estuary show that the probability of failures associated with wave overtopping and soil piping will increase significantly over time, thus appropriate maintenance strategy is required to reduce the risk caused by changing operating conditions.