气候变化领域集成服务门户

BackgroundDuring the summers of 2003 and 2015, heat was found to be the cause of asubstantial number of deaths in Germany. Until now, estimates for the total number of heat-related deaths were only available regionally in Germany. For the summer of 2003, an analysis for Baden-Wurttemberg was extrapolated to the whole of Germany.ObjectivesOur analysis tries to prove astable statistical relationship between heat and mortality and to use this to quantify the number of heat-related deaths in Germany between the years 2001 and 2015.Materials and methodsBy fitting anonlinear statistical model, we estimated exposure-response curves that describe the influence of heat on the mortality rate. The performance of different indicators for heat stress was compared.ResultsThe comparison of the different indicators for heat showed that the weekly mean temperature was most useful to explain the course of the weekly mortality during the summer. The relation between mortality rate and weekly mean temperature varied between age groups and regions in Germany (north, middle, south). The age groups (75-84) and (85+) were most affected by heat. The highest number of heat-related deaths was 7600 (95% CI 5500-9900), found for the summer 2003, followed by 6200 (4000; 8000) in the summer 2006 and 6100 (4000; 8300) in the summer 2015.ConclusionsWe could show that even in weekly data on mortality, aclear influence of heat could be identified. Anational surveillance of mortality that allows real-time monitoring would be desirable.