气候变化领域集成服务门户

Modeling the impacts of urbanization on carbon storage has become a critical and hot topic in the fields of mitigating global warming. This study coupled urban expansion and land use change simulation and prediction model (SLEUTH-3r model) and ecosystem service evaluation model (InVEST model) to analyze and predict the impacts of urbanization on carbon storage in Shizuishan, a city located in the northwestern of China. Scenarios analysis was used to compare the effects of different policies on carbon storage, while the policies concern about urban growth pattern, ecological protection and socioeconomic development. The results suggested that (1) the coupled model can predict carbon storage change with urbanization in a high accuracy (relative error within +/- 5% for 94.6% of the whole area); (2) carbon storage of Shizuishan experienced a loss of 2.70 Tg in 1989-2015, and would continue to experience a loss of 6.18 Tg, 5.27 Tg, 3.76 Tg and 2.47 Tg under historical growth scenario (HGS), decrease socioeconomic scenario (DSS), compact growth scenario (CGS) and ecological protection scenario (EPS) in 2015-2035, respectively; (3) compact urban growth pattern and ecological protection policy can both decrease the negative effects of urbanization on carbon storage. Multiple ecosystem services should be integrated into urban planning to achieve a balance of socioeconomic development and environment protection.