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DOI10.1002/joc.5956
Global warming from 1.5 to 2 degrees C will lead to increase in precipitation intensity in China
Zhou, Mengzi1; Zhou, Guangsheng1,2; Lv, Xiaomin1; Zhou, Li1; Ji, Yuhe1
发表日期2019
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
卷号39期号:4页码:2351-2361
英文摘要

The impact of global warming on extreme precipitation over China is projected based on CMIP5 simulations under three representative concentration pathway scenarios. When global warming is 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial (1861-1890), precipitation intensity and frequency increase, which leads to an increase relative to the period 1986-2005 in total wet daytime precipitation in northeast China, north China, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, south China and southwest China experience fewer precipitation days and less total precipitation despite increasing simple daily intensity (SDII). Under 2 degrees C of warming, the number of wet days (R1mm) increases north of 30 degrees N and decreases to the south, whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) displays the opposite pattern. The other eight extreme precipitation events increase during the simulation period nationwide, with varying intensity. An increase in global warming from 1.5 to 2 degrees C is projected to lead to an increase in precipitation intensity over China, except for some scattered regions in the northwest and southwest of the country. More frequent extreme precipitation days are also expected, although decreases in R1mm are projected in north China and extend to northwest China. An overall small decrease in CDD is predicted for China. All annual regional-mean precipitation events have an apparent linear relationship with global mean temperature, except for CDD. The rate of increase of extreme precipitation with temperature in the future on an annual scale is much faster than for a reference period (1986-2005), whereas no noticeable difference exists on a daily scale. The relationships between daily precipitation extremes and temperature for the present day and for the future show a quadratic polynomial structure, increasing up to 19 degrees C but decreasing at higher temperatures. There is a significant positive influence on extreme precipitation when warming is limited to 1.5 degrees C, compared with a limit of 2 degrees C.


WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/95263
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast Meteorol Disaster, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhou, Mengzi,Zhou, Guangsheng,Lv, Xiaomin,et al. Global warming from 1.5 to 2 degrees C will lead to increase in precipitation intensity in China[J],2019,39(4):2351-2361.
APA Zhou, Mengzi,Zhou, Guangsheng,Lv, Xiaomin,Zhou, Li,&Ji, Yuhe.(2019).Global warming from 1.5 to 2 degrees C will lead to increase in precipitation intensity in China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(4),2351-2361.
MLA Zhou, Mengzi,et al."Global warming from 1.5 to 2 degrees C will lead to increase in precipitation intensity in China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.4(2019):2351-2361.
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