气候变化领域集成服务门户

According to the latest Taiwan's energy plan, nuclear power that provides approximately 16% of total electricity will be replaced by renewable energy sources by 2025. Wind power is of particular interest because Taiwan's maritime climate and constant monsoons make it a feasible alternative that potentially generate a considerable amount of electricity. To better understand how wind power can provide stable electricity output and sequester CO2 emissions, this study employs the Weibull distribution with a threshold regression model to estimate the electricity potential for 370 scheduled wind farm sites and refine electricity estimation according to observed data from all existing wind farms. The results show that, compared to the theoretical estimation models, our proposed refinement method can, in average, reduce estimating error by 87%. The results indicate that construction of all scheduled sites are not a cost-effective approach, and the government may focus on construction of stations that can generate electricity of more than 12 million kWh per year, if capital rationing do exist. Our insightful results thus convey constructive suggestions regarding sites selection, stability of wind speed, and electricity potential of each site, all of which can be helpful in decision making. It is also noteworthy to point out that unless future climate is far deviated from the observed data, wind power can be an effective substitute of nuclear power.