气候变化领域集成服务门户

Key messageThe tree census, paleopollen, fossil charcoal, human population, and climate data presented here provide unique support for importantanthropogenic influences onfire over the last 2000years in the eastern USA. This includes multiple instances of climate fire anomalies that may be best explained by the role of human-caused burning.ContextThe coupling ofpaleoecological and tree census data to address larger global change questions is a novel research approach to describe and ascribe recent vegetation dynamics vis-a-vis the climate versus disturbance debate.AimsThe aims of the study are to (1) compile and compare pre-European settlement versus modern upland arboreal pollen and tree survey data from a large number of studies in various forest regions in the eastern USA, (2) analyze fossil charcoal dating back 2000years for the northern versus central/southern tiers of the eastern USA, and (3) compare and contrast compositional and ecophysiological attributes for both datasets and temporal changes to known climate or disturbance phenomena to elucidate global change impacts and the drivers of forest change.MethodsWe analyzed paleoecological (pollen and charcoal) and tree census studies to compare protohistoric and modern vegetation assemblage for eastern North America, including the drivers of forest change. A total of seven forest types in the north and central regions of the eastern USA were used to co-analyze fossil pollen, fossil charcoal, and tree survey data.ResultsDisparities and consistencies existed when independently assessing witness tree and pollen records. Although forests north of the tension zone line (TZL) contained mostly Fagus, Pinus, Tsuga, and Acer witness trees, pollen records were dominated, as expected, by high-pollen-producing Pinus, Quercus, Tsuga, and Betula. Here, present-day pollen and tree survey data revealed significant declines in Fagus, Pinus, Tsuga, and Larix and increases in Acer, Populus, Fraxinus, Quercus, and Abies. South of the TZL, both witness tree and pollen records pointed to Quercus and Pinus domination, with declines in Quercus and Castanea and increases in Acer and Betula based on present-day data. Modern assemblages comprise tree genera thatare increasingly cool-adapted, shade-tolerant, drought-intolerant pyrophobes. Paleocharcoal data from 1 to 1750 AD indicate a slight increase in burning in southern forests and stable levels in the north, despite the increasing cold associated with the Little Ice Age. The most significant increase in burning followed the dramatic increase in human population associated with European settlement prior to the early twentieth century.ConclusionPost-1940, fire suppression was an ecologically transformative event in all datasets. Our analysis identifies multiple instances in which fire and vegetation changeswere likelydriven by shifts in human population and land use beyond those expected fromclimatealone.