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DOI | 10.2151/jmsj.2019-007 |
Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Associated with Tropical Cyclones Projected by Large-Ensemble Simulations | |
Kitoh, Akio1,2; Endo, Hirokazu2 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 0026-1165 |
EISSN | 2186-9057 |
卷号 | 97期号:1页码:141-152 |
英文摘要 | Future changes in precipitation extremes and role of tropical cyclones are investigated through a large ensemble experiment, considering 6,000 years for the present and 5,400 years under + 4 K warming, using a 60-km mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model version 3.2. As in the previous findings of the authors, the annual maximum 1-day precipitation total ( Rx1d) is projected to increase in the warmer world in the future almost globally, except in the western North Pacific where a projected decrease of tropical cyclone frequency results in only small change or even reduction of Rx1d. Furthermore, a large ensemble size enables us to investigate the changes in the tails of the Rx1d distribution. It is found that 90- and 99-percentile values of the Rx1d associated with tropical cyclones will increase in a region extending from Hawaii to the south of Japan. In this region, the interannual variability of the Rx1d associated with tropical cyclones is also projected to increase, implying an increasing risk of rare heavier rainfall events because of global warming. |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/92425 |
作者单位 | 1.Japan Meteorol Business Support Ctr, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan; 2.Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kitoh, Akio,Endo, Hirokazu. Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Associated with Tropical Cyclones Projected by Large-Ensemble Simulations[J],2019,97(1):141-152. |
APA | Kitoh, Akio,&Endo, Hirokazu.(2019).Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Associated with Tropical Cyclones Projected by Large-Ensemble Simulations.JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN,97(1),141-152. |
MLA | Kitoh, Akio,et al."Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Associated with Tropical Cyclones Projected by Large-Ensemble Simulations".JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN 97.1(2019):141-152. |
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