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Phytoplankton production in coastal waters influences seafood production and human health and can lead to harmful algal blooms. Water temperature and eutrophication are critical factors affecting phytoplankton production, although the combined effects of warming and nutrient changes on phytoplankton production in coastal waters are not well understood. To address this, phytoplankton production changes in natural waters were investigated using samples collected over eight months, and under 64 different initial conditions, established by combining four different water temperatures (i.e., ambient T, + 2, + 4, and + 6 degrees C), and two different nutrient conditions (i.e., non-enriched and enriched). Under the non-enriched conditions, the effect of warming on phytoplankton production was significantly positive in some months, significantly negative in others, or had no effect. However, under enriched conditions, warming affected phytoplankton production positively in all months except one, when the salinity was as low as 6.5. These results suggest that nutrient conditions can alter the effects of warming on phytoplankton production. Of several parameters, the ratio of initial nitrate concentration to chlorophyll a concentration [NCCA, mu M (pg L-1)(-1))] was one of the most critical factors determining the directionality of the warming effects. In laboratory experiments, when NCCA in the ambient or nutrient-enriched waters was >= 1.2, warming increased or did not change phytoplankton production with one exception; however, when NCCA was < 1.2, warming did not change or decreased production. In the time series data obtained from the coastal waters of four target countries, when NCCA was 1.5 or more, warming increased phytoplankton production, whereas when NCCA was lower than 1.5, warming lowered phytoplankton production, Thus, it is suggested that NCCA could be used as an index for predicting future phytoplankton production changes in coastal waters.