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DOI10.1080/14693062.2018.1464893
Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement
Glynn, James1,2; Gargiulo, Maurizio1,2,3; Chiodi, Alessandro1,2,3; Deane, Paul1,2; Rogan, Fionn1,2; Gallachoir, Brian O.1,2
发表日期2019
ISSN1469-3062
EISSN1752-7457
卷号19期号:1页码:30-42
英文摘要

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2 degrees C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5 degrees C. Each Party's successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party's then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80-95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5 degrees C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than Euro8,100/tCO(2) by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5-10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.Key policy insights Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3-5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80-95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of well below' 2 degrees C and pursuing 1.5 degrees C.Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.


WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public Administration
来源期刊CLIMATE POLICY
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/90520
作者单位1.Univ Coll Cork, Environm Res Inst, MaREI Ctr, Cork, Ireland;
2.Univ Coll Cork, Sch Engn, Cork, Ireland;
3.E4SMA Srl, Turin, Italy
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Glynn, James,Gargiulo, Maurizio,Chiodi, Alessandro,et al. Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement[J],2019,19(1):30-42.
APA Glynn, James,Gargiulo, Maurizio,Chiodi, Alessandro,Deane, Paul,Rogan, Fionn,&Gallachoir, Brian O..(2019).Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement.CLIMATE POLICY,19(1),30-42.
MLA Glynn, James,et al."Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement".CLIMATE POLICY 19.1(2019):30-42.
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