Climate Change Data Portal
DOI | 10.1080/14693062.2018.1464893 |
Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement | |
Glynn, James1,2; Gargiulo, Maurizio1,2,3; Chiodi, Alessandro1,2,3; Deane, Paul1,2; Rogan, Fionn1,2; Gallachoir, Brian O.1,2 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 1469-3062 |
EISSN | 1752-7457 |
卷号 | 19期号:1页码:30-42 |
英文摘要 | The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2 degrees C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5 degrees C. Each Party's successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party's then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80-95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5 degrees C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than Euro8,100/tCO(2) by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5-10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.Key policy insights Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3-5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80-95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of well below' 2 degrees C and pursuing 1.5 degrees C.Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy. |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public Administration |
来源期刊 | CLIMATE POLICY
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/90520 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Coll Cork, Environm Res Inst, MaREI Ctr, Cork, Ireland; 2.Univ Coll Cork, Sch Engn, Cork, Ireland; 3.E4SMA Srl, Turin, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Glynn, James,Gargiulo, Maurizio,Chiodi, Alessandro,et al. Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement[J],2019,19(1):30-42. |
APA | Glynn, James,Gargiulo, Maurizio,Chiodi, Alessandro,Deane, Paul,Rogan, Fionn,&Gallachoir, Brian O..(2019).Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement.CLIMATE POLICY,19(1),30-42. |
MLA | Glynn, James,et al."Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement".CLIMATE POLICY 19.1(2019):30-42. |
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