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DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4446-2
Rainfall from tropical cyclones: high-resolution simulations and seasonal forecasts
Zhang, Wei1; Villarini, Gabriele1; Vecchi, Gabriel A.2,3; Murakami, Hiroyuki4,5
发表日期2019
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
卷号52期号:9-10页码:5269-5289
英文摘要

This study examines the performance of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 (FLOR; similar to 50-km mesh) and high-resolution FLOR (HiFLOR; similar to 25-km mesh) in reproducing the climatology and interannual variability in rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) in both sea surface temperature (SST)-nudging and seasonal-forecast experiments. Overall, HiFLOR outperforms FLOR in capturing the observed climatology of TC rainfall, particularly in East Asia, North America and Australia. In general, both FLOR and HiFLOR underestimate the observed TC rainfall in the coastal regions along the Bay of Bengal, connected to their failure to accurately simulate the bimodal structure of the TC genesis seasonality. A crucial factor in capturing the climatology of TC rainfall by the models is the simulation of the climatology of spatial TC density. Overall, while HiFLOR leads to a better characterization of the areas affected by TC rainfall, the SST-nudging and seasonal-forecast experiments with both models show limited skill in reproducing the year-to-year variation in TC rainfall. Ensemble-based estimates from these models indicate low potential skill for year-to-year variations in TC rainfall, yet the models show lower skill than this. Therefore, the low skill for interannual TC rainfall in these models reflects both a fundamental limit on predictability/reproducibility of seasonal TC rainfall as well as shortcomings in the models.


WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/90468
作者单位1.Univ Iowa, IIHR Hydrosci & Engn, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA;
2.Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
3.Princeton Univ, Princeton Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
4.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA;
5.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
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GB/T 7714
Zhang, Wei,Villarini, Gabriele,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,et al. Rainfall from tropical cyclones: high-resolution simulations and seasonal forecasts[J],2019,52(9-10):5269-5289.
APA Zhang, Wei,Villarini, Gabriele,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,&Murakami, Hiroyuki.(2019).Rainfall from tropical cyclones: high-resolution simulations and seasonal forecasts.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(9-10),5269-5289.
MLA Zhang, Wei,et al."Rainfall from tropical cyclones: high-resolution simulations and seasonal forecasts".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.9-10(2019):5269-5289.
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