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DOI | 10.1007/s00704-018-2500-y |
Introduction and application of non-stationary standardized precipitation index considering probability distribution function and return period | |
Park, Junehyeong1; Sung, Jang Hyun2; Lim, Yoon-Jin1; Kang, Hyun-Suk1 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 0177-798X |
EISSN | 1434-4483 |
卷号 | 136期号:1-2页码:529-542 |
英文摘要 | The widely used meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), basically assumes stationarity, but recent changes in the climate have led to a need to review this hypothesis. In this study, a new non-stationary SPI that considers not only the modified probability distribution parameter but also the return period under the non-stationary process was proposed. The results were evaluated for two severe drought cases during the last 10years in South Korea. As a result, SPIs considered that the non-stationary hypothesis underestimated the drought severity than the stationary SPI despite that these past two droughts were recognized as significantly severe droughts. It may be caused by that the variances of summer and autumn precipitation become larger over time then it can make the probability distribution wider than before. This implies that drought expressions by statistical index such as SPI can be distorted by stationary assumption and cautious approach is needed when deciding drought level considering climate changes. |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
来源期刊 | THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/90214 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Inst Meteorol Sci, Dept Earth Syst, Div Res, Jeju, South Korea; 2.Minist Land Infrastruct & Transport, Han River Flood Control Off, Seoul, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Park, Junehyeong,Sung, Jang Hyun,Lim, Yoon-Jin,et al. Introduction and application of non-stationary standardized precipitation index considering probability distribution function and return period[J],2019,136(1-2):529-542. |
APA | Park, Junehyeong,Sung, Jang Hyun,Lim, Yoon-Jin,&Kang, Hyun-Suk.(2019).Introduction and application of non-stationary standardized precipitation index considering probability distribution function and return period.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,136(1-2),529-542. |
MLA | Park, Junehyeong,et al."Introduction and application of non-stationary standardized precipitation index considering probability distribution function and return period".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 136.1-2(2019):529-542. |
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