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DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4145-z
Human influence on Canadian temperatures
Wan, Hui1; Zhang, Xuebin1; Zwiers, Francis2
发表日期2019
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
卷号52期号:1-2页码:479-494
英文摘要

Canada has experienced some of the most rapid warming on Earth over the past few decades with a warming rate about twice that of the global mean temperature since 1948. Long-term warming is observed in Canada's annual, winter and summer mean temperatures, and in the annual coldest and hottest daytime and nighttime temperatures. The causes of these changes are assessed by comparing observed changes with climate model simulated responses to anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) external forcings. Most of the observed warming of 1.7 degrees C increase in annual mean temperature during 1948-2012 [90% confidence interval (1.1 degrees, 2.2 degrees C)] can only be explained by external forcing on the climate system, with anthropogenic influence being the dominant factor. It is estimated that anthropogenic forcing has contributed 1.0 degrees C (0.6 degrees, 1.5 degrees C) and natural external forcing has contributed 0.2 degrees C (0.1 degrees, 0.3 degrees C) to the observed warming. Up to 0.5 degrees C of the observed warming trend may be associated with low frequency variability of the climate such as that represented by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Overall, the influence of both anthropogenic and natural external forcing is clearly evident in Canada-wide mean and extreme temperatures, and can also be detected regionally over much of the country.


WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/90174
作者单位1.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Climate Res Div, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada;
2.Univ Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Wan, Hui,Zhang, Xuebin,Zwiers, Francis. Human influence on Canadian temperatures[J],2019,52(1-2):479-494.
APA Wan, Hui,Zhang, Xuebin,&Zwiers, Francis.(2019).Human influence on Canadian temperatures.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(1-2),479-494.
MLA Wan, Hui,et al."Human influence on Canadian temperatures".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.1-2(2019):479-494.
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