气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland

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DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2016.06.006
	A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland
	Rayner D.; Achberger C.; Chen D.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	1674-9374
卷号	7 期号:2019-01-02
英文摘要	This paper describes a new weather generator – the 10-state empirical model – that combines a 10-state, first-order Markov chain with a non-parametric precipitation amounts model. Using a doubly-stochastic transition-matrix results in a weather generator for which the overall precipitation distribution (including both wet and dry days) and the temporal-correlation can be modified independently for climate change studies. This paper assesses the ability of the 10-state empirical model to simulate daily area-average precipitation in the Torne River catchment in northern Sweden/western Finland in the context of 3 other models: a 10-state model with a parametric (Gamma) amounts model; a wet/dry chain with the empirical amounts model; and a wet/dry chain with the parametric amounts model. The ability to accurately simulate the distribution of multi-day precipitation in the catchment is the primary consideration. Results showed that the 10-state empirical model represented accumulated 2- to 14-day precipitation most realistically. Further, the distribution of precipitation on wet days in the catchment is related to the placement of a wet day within a wet-spell, and the 10-state models represented this realistically, while the wet/dry models did not. Although all four models accurately reproduced the annual and monthly averages in the training data, all models underestimated inter-annual and inter-seasonal variance. Even so, the 10-state empirical model performed best. We conclude that the multi-state model is a promising candidate for hydrological applications, as it simulates multi-day precipitation well, but that further development is required to improve the simulation of interannual variation. © 2016 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration)
英文关键词	Multi-state; Precipitation; Torne River; Weather generator
语种	英语
来源期刊	Advances in Climate Change Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/89228
作者单位	Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg40530, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rayner D.,Achberger C.,Chen D.. A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland[J],2016,7(2019-01-02).
APA	Rayner D.,Achberger C.,&Chen D..(2016).A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland.Advances in Climate Change Research,7(2019-01-02).
MLA	Rayner D.,et al."A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland".Advances in Climate Change Research 7.2019-01-02(2016).