Climate Change Data Portal
| Implications of Climate Change for Regional Air Pollution, Health Effects and Energy Consumption Behavior | |
| 项目编号 | R828731 |
| Joseph H. Ellis | |
| 项目主持机构 | GSF - Forschungszentrum fur Umwelt und Gesundheitand Ludwig Maximilian University, Neuherberg, Germany |
| 开始日期 | 2000-09-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2003-08-01 |
| 英文摘要 | Project Research Results Final Report 2004 2003 Progress Report 2002 Progress Report 2001 Progress Report 24 publications for this project 9 journal articles for this project Related Information Research Grants P3: Student Design Competition Research Fellowships Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Grantee Research Project Results Search Implications of Climate Change for Regional Air Pollution, Health Effects and Energy Consumption Behavior EPA Grant Number: R828731 Title: Implications of Climate Change for Regional Air Pollution, Health Effects and Energy Consumption Behavior Investigators: Ellis, Joseph H. , Hobbs, Benjamin F. , Joutz, Frederick L. , Patz, J. F. , Samet, J. , Schwab, M. Current Investigators: Ellis, Joseph H. , Hobbs, Benjamin F. , Joutz, Frederick L. Institution:The Johns Hopkins University , George Washington University Current Institution:The Johns Hopkins University EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena Project Period: September 1, 2000 through August 31, 2003 (Extended to February 7, 2005) Project Amount: $1,376,739 RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Interactions between Human Activities and a Changing Climate (2000)RFA Text | Recipients Lists Research Category:Global Climate Change ,Climate Change ,Air Description: Our objective is to develop a scientifically credible modeling facility that will help policy makers and analysts understand the effects of human activities on climate change and variability as well as the possible human responses and adaptations to climate change and variability.This research approach involves four major modeling elements: climate change and variability, electrical energy demand and production, regional air pollution, and human health effects associated with air pollution exposure. Using the Maryland/Northern Virginia/DC/Delaware area as a case study, the air pollutants we will focus on in our analyses are tropospheric (ground level) ozone and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) because of their important health effects (including increased morbidity and premature death). The modeling system used for these pollutants will be Models-3, which is installed and functioning in-house. (MM5 is also installed and functioning in-house). Emissions inventory management and projections are accommodated within Models-3. Climate change and variability will be modeled using downscaled exogenously derived scenarios for a suite of time horizons. Average electric demand modeling for residential and commercial sectors will be accomplished using a suite of the latest generation Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)-developed tools (respectively, REEPS and COMMEND). Changes in demand distributions over time will be accomplished using a standard load shape and short-term load forecasting model (HELM-PC, another EPRI product). Widely used electric power sector simulation approaches will translate demand distributions into fuel use and emissions by electricity generators. Transportation-related climate effects will be modeled through altered VOC and NOx emissions as a result of decreases in vehicle miles traveled and changes in electricity demand caused by the declaration of ozone pollution alerts. Finally, human health effects modeling will be performed with PM and ozone concentration-response functions described in EPA's Section 812 study, in conjunction with other existing (locally-derived) epidemiologic models and newly developed methods relating urban air pollutant exposure and selected morbidity and mortality endpoints.The principal result of our work will be a comprehensive yet computationally tractable tool for analyzing interrelationships between selected human activities (including transportation), energy production and consumption behavior, ambient air pollution and associated health effects. |
| 英文关键词 | climate change and air pollution;human health;electrical energy production and demand. |
| 学科分类 | 0805 - 大气科学;;08 - 地球科学;09 - 环境科学 |
| 资助机构 | US-EPA |
| 项目经费 | 1376739 |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/73029 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joseph H. Ellis.Implications of Climate Change for Regional Air Pollution, Health Effects and Energy Consumption Behavior.2000. |
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