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DOI10.1002/jgrd.50171
Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment
Bond, T. C.1; Doherty, S. J.2; Fahey, D. W.3,4; Forster, P. M.5; Berntsen, T.6,7; DeAngelo, B. J.8; Flanner, M. G.9; Ghan, S.10; Kaercher, B.11; Koch, D.12; Kinne, S.13; Kondo, Y.14; Quinn, P. K.15; Sarofim, M. C.8; Schultz, M. G.16; Schulz, M.17; Venkataraman, C.18; Zhang, H.19; Zhang, S.20; Bellouin, N.21; Guttikunda, S. K.22; Hopke, P. K.23; Jacobson, M. Z.24; Kaiser, J. W.25,26,27; Klimont, Z.28; Lohmann, U.29; Schwarz, J. P.3,4; Shindell, D.30; Storelvmo, T.31; Warren, S. G.32; Zender, C. S.33
发表日期2013-06-16
ISSN2169-897X
卷号118期号:11页码:5380-5552
英文摘要

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr(-1) in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m(-2) with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m(-2). Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m(-2). Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m(-2) with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m(-2). Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m(-2), is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (-0.50 to +1.08) W m(-2) during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (-0.06 W m(-2) with 90% uncertainty bounds of -1.45 to +1.29 W m(-2)).


The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.


英文关键词black carbon;climate forcing;aerosol
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000325212600025
来源期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/62112
作者单位1.Univ Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801 USA;
2.Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere & Ocean, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;
3.Univ Colorado, NOAA Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
4.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
5.Univ Leeds, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England;
6.Univ Oslo, Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res Oslo, Oslo, Norway;
7.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, Oslo, Norway;
8.US EPA, Washington, DC 20460 USA;
9.Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA;
10.Pacific NW Natl Lab, Richland, WA 99352 USA;
11.Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany;
12.US DOE, Washington, DC 20585 USA;
13.Max Planck Inst, Hamburg, Germany;
14.Univ Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan;
15.NOAA Pacific Marine Environm Lab, Seattle, WA USA;
16.Forschungszentrum Julich, D-52425 Julich, Germany;
17.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway;
18.Indian Inst Technol, Bombay 400076, Maharashtra, India;
19.China Meteorol Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China;
20.Peking Univ, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China;
21.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England;
22.Univ Nevada, Desert Res Inst, Div Atmospher Sci, Reno, NV 89506 USA;
23.Clarkson Univ, Potsdam, NY USA;
24.Stanford Univ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
25.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England;
26.Kings Coll London, London, England;
27.Max Planck Inst Chem, D-55128 Mainz, Germany;
28.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;
29.ETH, Zurich, Switzerland;
30.NASA Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA;
31.Yale Univ, New Haven, CT USA;
32.Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;
33.Univ Calif Irvine, Irvine, CA USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Bond, T. C.,Doherty, S. J.,Fahey, D. W.,et al. Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment[J]. 美国环保署,2013,118(11):5380-5552.
APA Bond, T. C..,Doherty, S. J..,Fahey, D. W..,Forster, P. M..,Berntsen, T..,...&Zender, C. S..(2013).Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,118(11),5380-5552.
MLA Bond, T. C.,et al."Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 118.11(2013):5380-5552.
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