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DOI10.1016/j.yrtph.2015.04.004
Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence
Becker, Richard A.1; Ankley, Gerald T.2; Edwards, Stephen W.3; Kennedy, Sean W.4; Linkov, Igor5; Meek, Bette6; Sachana, Magdalini7; Segner, Helmut8; Van der Burg, Bart9; Villeneuve, Daniel L.2; Watanabe, Haruna10; Barton-Maclaren, Tara S.11
发表日期2015-08-01
ISSN0273-2300
卷号72期号:3页码:514-537
英文摘要

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).


英文关键词Adverse outcome pathway;Weight of evidence;Mode of action;Bradford-Hill considerations
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000360255700010
来源期刊REGULATORY TOXICOLOGY AND PHARMACOLOGY
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/61852
作者单位1.Amer Chem Council, Washington, DC 20002 USA;
2.US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Midcontinent Ecol Div, Duluth, MN USA;
3.US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Integrated Syst Toxicol Div, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA;
4.Environm Canada, Natl Wildlife Res Ctr, Ottawa, ON K1A 0H3, Canada;
5.US Army Corps Engineers, Engineer Res & Dev Ctr, Environm Lab, Concord, MA USA;
6.Univ Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada;
7.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, I-21027 Ispra, Italy;
8.Univ Bern, Ctr Fish & Wildlife Hlth, Bern, Switzerland;
9.BioDetect Syst BV, Amsterdam, Netherlands;
10.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Environm Risk Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan;
11.Hlth Canada, Existing Subst Risk Assessment Bur, Ottawa, ON K1A 0L2, Canada
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Becker, Richard A.,Ankley, Gerald T.,Edwards, Stephen W.,et al. Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence[J]. 美国环保署,2015,72(3):514-537.
APA Becker, Richard A..,Ankley, Gerald T..,Edwards, Stephen W..,Kennedy, Sean W..,Linkov, Igor.,...&Barton-Maclaren, Tara S..(2015).Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.REGULATORY TOXICOLOGY AND PHARMACOLOGY,72(3),514-537.
MLA Becker, Richard A.,et al."Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence".REGULATORY TOXICOLOGY AND PHARMACOLOGY 72.3(2015):514-537.
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