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DOI10.1142/S2010007818400031
POLICY INSIGHTS FROM THE EMF 32 STUDY ON U.S. CARBON TAX SCENARIOS
Barron, Alexander R.1; Fawcett, Allen A.2; Hafstead, Marc A. C.3; McFarland, James R.2; Morris, Adele C.4
发表日期2018-02-01
ISSN2010-0078
卷号9期号:1
英文摘要

The Stanford Energy Modeling Forum exercise 32 (EMF 32) used 11 different models to assess emissions, energy, and economic outcomes from a plausible range of economy-wide carbon price policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States. Here we discuss the most policy-relevant results of the study, mindful of the strengths and weaknesses of current models. Across all models, carbon prices lead to significant reductions in CO2 emissions and conventional pollutants, with the vast majority of the reductions occurring in the electricity sector. Importantly, emissions reductions do not significantly depend on the rebate or tax cut used to return revenues to the economy. Expected economic costs, as modeled by either GDP or welfare, are modest, but vary across models. These costs are offset by benefits from avoided climate damages and health benefits from reductions in conventional air pollution. Using revenues to reduce preexisting capital or labor taxes reduces costs in most models relative to lump-sum rebates, but the size of the cost reductions varies significantly. Devoting at least some revenue to household rebates can significantly reduce adverse impacts on low income households. Carbon prices at $25/ton or even lower levels cause significant shifts away from coal as an energy source with responses of other energy sources highly dependent upon technology cost assumptions. Beyond 2030, we conclude that model uncertainties are too large to make quantitative results useful for near-term policy design. We close by describing recommendations for policymakers on interacting with model results in the future.


英文关键词Climate change;model comparison;decarbonization;CGE models
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000428286000003
来源期刊CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/60311
作者单位1.Smith Coll, Environm Sci & Policy Program, 44 Coll Lane, Northampton, MA 01063 USA;
2.US EPA, 1200 Penn Ave NW, Washington, DC 20460 USA;
3.Resources Future Inc, 1616 P St NW, Washington, DC 20036 USA;
4.Brookings Inst, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Barron, Alexander R.,Fawcett, Allen A.,Hafstead, Marc A. C.,et al. POLICY INSIGHTS FROM THE EMF 32 STUDY ON U.S. CARBON TAX SCENARIOS[J]. 美国环保署,2018,9(1).
APA Barron, Alexander R.,Fawcett, Allen A.,Hafstead, Marc A. C.,McFarland, James R.,&Morris, Adele C..(2018).POLICY INSIGHTS FROM THE EMF 32 STUDY ON U.S. CARBON TAX SCENARIOS.CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS,9(1).
MLA Barron, Alexander R.,et al."POLICY INSIGHTS FROM THE EMF 32 STUDY ON U.S. CARBON TAX SCENARIOS".CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS 9.1(2018).
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