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DOI | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.002 |
System learning approach to assess sustainability and forecast trends in regional dynamics: The San Luis Basin study, Colorado, USA | |
Gonzalez-Mejia, Alejandra M.1,2,3,4; Eason, Tarsha N.1; Cabezas, Heriberto1 | |
发表日期 | 2016-07-01 |
ISSN | 1364-8152 |
卷号 | 81页码:1-11 |
英文摘要 | This paper presents a methodology that combines the power of an Artificial Neural Network and Information Theory to forecast variables describing the condition of a regional system. The novelty and strength of this approach is in the application of Fisher information, a key method in Information Theory, to preserve trends in the historical data and prevent over fitting projections. The methodology was applied to demographic, environmental, food and energy consumption, and agricultural production in the San Luis Basin regional system in Colorado, U.S.A. These variables are important for tracking conditions in human and natural systems. However, available data are often so far out of date that they limit the ability to manage these systems. Results indicate that the approaches developed provide viable tools for forecasting outcomes with the aim of assisting management toward sustainable trends. This methodology is also applicable for modeling different scenarios in other dynamic systems. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
英文关键词 | Artificial neural network;Fisher information;Forecast;Prediction;Baseline scenario;Sustainability;Regional system |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000377729100001 |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
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来源机构 | 美国环保署 |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/60172 |
作者单位 | 1.US EPA, Sustainable Technol Div, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Off Res & Dev, 26 W Martin Luther King Dr, Cincinnati, OH 45268 USA; 2.Oak Ridge Inst Sci & Educ, Oak Ridge, TN USA; 3.Bangor Univ, Bangor, Gwynedd, Wales; 4.Ser Cymru Natl Res Network Low Carbon Energy & En, Sch Environm Nat Resources & Geog, Bangor, Gwynedd, Wales |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gonzalez-Mejia, Alejandra M.,Eason, Tarsha N.,Cabezas, Heriberto. System learning approach to assess sustainability and forecast trends in regional dynamics: The San Luis Basin study, Colorado, USA[J]. 美国环保署,2016,81:1-11. |
APA | Gonzalez-Mejia, Alejandra M.,Eason, Tarsha N.,&Cabezas, Heriberto.(2016).System learning approach to assess sustainability and forecast trends in regional dynamics: The San Luis Basin study, Colorado, USA.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,81,1-11. |
MLA | Gonzalez-Mejia, Alejandra M.,et al."System learning approach to assess sustainability and forecast trends in regional dynamics: The San Luis Basin study, Colorado, USA".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 81(2016):1-11. |
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