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DOI10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.002
System learning approach to assess sustainability and forecast trends in regional dynamics: The San Luis Basin study, Colorado, USA
Gonzalez-Mejia, Alejandra M.1,2,3,4; Eason, Tarsha N.1; Cabezas, Heriberto1
发表日期2016-07-01
ISSN1364-8152
卷号81页码:1-11
英文摘要

This paper presents a methodology that combines the power of an Artificial Neural Network and Information Theory to forecast variables describing the condition of a regional system. The novelty and strength of this approach is in the application of Fisher information, a key method in Information Theory, to preserve trends in the historical data and prevent over fitting projections. The methodology was applied to demographic, environmental, food and energy consumption, and agricultural production in the San Luis Basin regional system in Colorado, U.S.A. These variables are important for tracking conditions in human and natural systems. However, available data are often so far out of date that they limit the ability to manage these systems. Results indicate that the approaches developed provide viable tools for forecasting outcomes with the aim of assisting management toward sustainable trends. This methodology is also applicable for modeling different scenarios in other dynamic systems. Published by Elsevier Ltd.


英文关键词Artificial neural network;Fisher information;Forecast;Prediction;Baseline scenario;Sustainability;Regional system
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000377729100001
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/60172
作者单位1.US EPA, Sustainable Technol Div, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Off Res & Dev, 26 W Martin Luther King Dr, Cincinnati, OH 45268 USA;
2.Oak Ridge Inst Sci & Educ, Oak Ridge, TN USA;
3.Bangor Univ, Bangor, Gwynedd, Wales;
4.Ser Cymru Natl Res Network Low Carbon Energy & En, Sch Environm Nat Resources & Geog, Bangor, Gwynedd, Wales
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Gonzalez-Mejia, Alejandra M.,Eason, Tarsha N.,Cabezas, Heriberto. System learning approach to assess sustainability and forecast trends in regional dynamics: The San Luis Basin study, Colorado, USA[J]. 美国环保署,2016,81:1-11.
APA Gonzalez-Mejia, Alejandra M.,Eason, Tarsha N.,&Cabezas, Heriberto.(2016).System learning approach to assess sustainability and forecast trends in regional dynamics: The San Luis Basin study, Colorado, USA.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,81,1-11.
MLA Gonzalez-Mejia, Alejandra M.,et al."System learning approach to assess sustainability and forecast trends in regional dynamics: The San Luis Basin study, Colorado, USA".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 81(2016):1-11.
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