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DOI | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.12.007 |
A framework for uncertainty and risk analysis in Total Maximum Daily Load applications | |
Camacho, Rene A.1; Martin, James L.2; Wool, Tim3; Singh, Vijay P.4 | |
发表日期 | 2018-03-01 |
ISSN | 1364-8152 |
卷号 | 101页码:218-235 |
英文摘要 | In the United States, the computation of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDL) must include a Margin of Safety (MOS) to account for different sources of uncertainty. In practice however, TMDL studies rarely include an explicit uncertainty analysis and the estimation of the MOS is often subjective and even arbitrary. Such approaches are difficult to replicate and preclude the comparison of results between studies. To overcome these limitations, a Bayesian framework to compute TMDLs and MOSs including an explicit evaluation of uncertainty and risk is proposed in this investigation. The proposed framework uses the concept of Predictive Uncertainty to calculate a TMDL from an equation of allowable risk of noncompliance of a target water quality standard. The framework is illustrated in a synthetic example and in a real TMDL study for nutrients in Sawgrass Lake, Florida. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Total Maximum Daily Load;Margin of safety;Uncertainty analysis;Risk assessment;Bayesian analysis |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000424826300018 |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE |
来源机构 | 美国环保署 |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/60090 |
作者单位 | 1.Tetra Tech Inc, 1899 Powers Ferry Rd SE,Suite 400, Atlanta, GA 30339 USA; 2.Mississippi State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Mississippi State, MS 39762 USA; 3.US EPA, Atlanta, GA USA; 4.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, Caroline & William N Lehrer Distinguished Chair W, College Stn, TX USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Camacho, Rene A.,Martin, James L.,Wool, Tim,et al. A framework for uncertainty and risk analysis in Total Maximum Daily Load applications[J]. 美国环保署,2018,101:218-235. |
APA | Camacho, Rene A.,Martin, James L.,Wool, Tim,&Singh, Vijay P..(2018).A framework for uncertainty and risk analysis in Total Maximum Daily Load applications.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,101,218-235. |
MLA | Camacho, Rene A.,et al."A framework for uncertainty and risk analysis in Total Maximum Daily Load applications".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 101(2018):218-235. |
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