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DOI | 10.1002/hyp.9360 |
Uncertainty in floodplain delineation: expression of flood hazard and risk in a Gulf Coast watershed | |
Christian, Jason1; Duenas-Osorio, Leonardo2; Teague, Aarin3; Fang, Zheng2; Bedient, Philip2 | |
发表日期 | 2013-09-15 |
ISSN | 0885-6087 |
卷号 | 27期号:19页码:2774-2784 |
英文摘要 | This paper investigates the development of flood hazard and flood risk delineations that account for uncertainty as improvements to standard floodplain maps for coastal watersheds. Current regulatory floodplain maps for the Gulf Coastal United States present 1% flood hazards as polygon features developed using deterministic, steady-state models that do not consider data uncertainty or natural variability of input parameters. Using the techniques presented here, a standard binary deterministic floodplain delineation is replaced with a flood inundation map showing the underlying flood hazard structure. Additionally, the hazard uncertainty is further transformed to show flood risk as a spatially distributed probable flood depth using concepts familiar to practicing engineers and software tools accepted and understood by regulators. A case study of the proposed hazard and risk assessment methodology is presented for a Gulf Coast watershed, which suggests that storm duration and stage boundary conditions are important variable parameters, whereas rainfall distribution, storm movement, and roughness coefficients contribute less variability. The floodplain with uncertainty for this coastal watershed showed the highest variability in the tidally influenced reaches and showed little variability in the inland riverine reaches. Additionally, comparison of flood hazard maps to flood risk maps shows that they are not directly correlated, as areas of high hazard do not always represent high risk. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
英文关键词 | flood hazard;flood risk;floodplain mapping;uncertainty analysis;coastal watersheds;storm surge |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000325218500007 |
来源期刊 | HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
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来源机构 | 美国环保署 |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/59640 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Georgia, Sch Engn, Driftmier Engn Ctr, Athens, GA 30602 USA; 2.Rice Univ, Houston, TX 77005 USA; 3.EPA Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, Gulf Breeze, FL 32561 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christian, Jason,Duenas-Osorio, Leonardo,Teague, Aarin,et al. Uncertainty in floodplain delineation: expression of flood hazard and risk in a Gulf Coast watershed[J]. 美国环保署,2013,27(19):2774-2784. |
APA | Christian, Jason,Duenas-Osorio, Leonardo,Teague, Aarin,Fang, Zheng,&Bedient, Philip.(2013).Uncertainty in floodplain delineation: expression of flood hazard and risk in a Gulf Coast watershed.HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,27(19),2774-2784. |
MLA | Christian, Jason,et al."Uncertainty in floodplain delineation: expression of flood hazard and risk in a Gulf Coast watershed".HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 27.19(2013):2774-2784. |
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