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DOI10.1016/j.forpol.2017.10.003
A Land Use and Resource Allocation (LURA) modeling system for projecting localized forest CO2 effects of alternative macroeconomic futures
Latta, Gregory S.1; Baker, Justin S.2; Ohrel, Sara3
发表日期2018-02-01
ISSN1389-9341
卷号87页码:35-48
英文摘要

The United States has recently set ambitious national goals for greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions over the coming decades. A portion of these reductions are based on expected sequestration and storage contributions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). Significant uncertainty exists in future forest markets and thus the potential LULUCF contribution to US GHG reduction goals. This study seeks to inform the discussion by modeling US forest GHG accounts per different simulated demand scenarios across a grid of over 130,000 USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) forestland plots over the conterminous United States. This spatially disaggregated future supply is based on empirical yield functions for log volume, biomass and carbon. Demand data is based on a spatial database of over 2300 forest product manufacturing facilities representing 11 intermediate and 13 final solid and pulpwood products. Transportation costs are derived from fuel prices and the locations of FIA plot from which a log is harvested and mill or port destination. Trade between mills in intermediate products such as sawmill residues or planer shavings is also captured within the model formulation. The resulting partial spatial equilibrium model of the US forest sector is solved annually for the period 2015-2035 with demand shifted by energy prices and macroeconomic indicators from the US EIA's Annual Energy Outlook for a Reference, Low Economic Growth, and High Economic Growth case. For each macroeconomic scenario simulated, figures showing historic and scenario-specific live tree camon emissions and sequestration are generated. Maps of the spatial allocation of both forest harvesting and related carbon fluxes are presented at the National level and detail is given for both regions and ownerships.


语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000423640000004
来源期刊FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/58935
作者单位1.Univ Idaho, Moscow, ID 83843 USA;
2.RTI Int, Raleigh, NC USA;
3.US Environm Protect Agcy, Washington, DC USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Latta, Gregory S.,Baker, Justin S.,Ohrel, Sara. A Land Use and Resource Allocation (LURA) modeling system for projecting localized forest CO2 effects of alternative macroeconomic futures[J]. 美国环保署,2018,87:35-48.
APA Latta, Gregory S.,Baker, Justin S.,&Ohrel, Sara.(2018).A Land Use and Resource Allocation (LURA) modeling system for projecting localized forest CO2 effects of alternative macroeconomic futures.FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS,87,35-48.
MLA Latta, Gregory S.,et al."A Land Use and Resource Allocation (LURA) modeling system for projecting localized forest CO2 effects of alternative macroeconomic futures".FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS 87(2018):35-48.
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