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DOI10.1175/EI-D-17-0018.1
Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?
Bock, Andrew R.1; Hay, Lauren E.2; McCabe, Gregory J.2; Markstrom, Steven L.2; Atkinson, R. Dwight3
发表日期2018-05-01
ISSN1087-3562
卷号22期号:10页码:1-22
英文摘要

The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950-2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.


英文关键词General circulation models;Hydrologic models;Precipitation;Runoff;Temperature
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000432574700001
来源期刊EARTH INTERACTIONS
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/58419
作者单位1.US Geol Survey, Colorado Water Sci, Lakewood, CO 80225 USA;
2.US Geol Survey, Water Mission Area, Lakewood, CO 80225 USA;
3.US EPA, Off Wetlands Oceans & Watersheds, Washington, DC 20460 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Bock, Andrew R.,Hay, Lauren E.,McCabe, Gregory J.,et al. Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?[J]. 美国环保署,2018,22(10):1-22.
APA Bock, Andrew R.,Hay, Lauren E.,McCabe, Gregory J.,Markstrom, Steven L.,&Atkinson, R. Dwight.(2018).Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?.EARTH INTERACTIONS,22(10),1-22.
MLA Bock, Andrew R.,et al."Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?".EARTH INTERACTIONS 22.10(2018):1-22.
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