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DOI10.5194/esd-9-1013-2018
A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates
Sarofim, Marcus C.1; Giordano, Michael R.2
发表日期2018-08-17
ISSN2190-4979
卷号9期号:3页码:1013-1024
英文摘要

The 100-year global warming potential (GWP) is the primary metric used to compare the climate impacts of emissions of different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The GWP relies on radiative forcing rather than damages, assumes constant future concentrations, and integrates over a timescale of 100 years without discounting; these choices lead to a metric that is transparent and simple to calculate, but have also been criticized. In this paper, we take a quantitative approach to evaluating the choice of time horizon, accounting for many of these complicating factors. By calculating an equivalent GWP timescale based on discounted damages resulting from CH4 and CO2 pulses, we show that a 100-year timescale is consistent with a discount rate of 3.3 % (interquartile range of 2.7 % to 4.1 % in a sensitivity analysis). This range of discount rates is consistent with those often considered for climate impact analyses. With increasing discount rates, equivalent timescales decrease. We recognize the limitations of evaluating metrics by relying only on climate impact equivalencies without consideration of the economic and political implications of metric implementation.


语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000442031600001
来源期刊EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/57104
作者单位1.US EPA, Climate Change Div, Washington, DC 20001 USA;
2.EPA Off Atmospher Programs, Washington, DC 20001 USA
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Sarofim, Marcus C.,Giordano, Michael R.. A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates[J]. 美国环保署,2018,9(3):1013-1024.
APA Sarofim, Marcus C.,&Giordano, Michael R..(2018).A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates.EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,9(3),1013-1024.
MLA Sarofim, Marcus C.,et al."A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates".EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 9.3(2018):1013-1024.
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