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DOI10.1111/risa.12541
Cryptosporidium Infection Risk: Results of New Dose-Response Modeling
Messner, Michael J.; Berger, Philip
发表日期2016-10-01
ISSN0272-4332
卷号36期号:10页码:1969-1982
英文摘要

Cryptosporidium human dose-response data from seven species/isolates are used to investigate six models of varying complexity that estimate infection probability as a function of dose. Previous models attempt to explicitly account for virulence differences among C. parvum isolates, using three or six species/isolates. Four (two new) models assume species/isolate differences are insignificant and three of these (all but exponential) allow for variable human susceptibility. These three human-focused models (fractional Poisson, exponential with immunity and beta-Poisson) are relatively simple yet fit the data significantly better than the more complex isolate-focused models. Among these three, the one-parameter fractional Poisson model is the simplest but assumes that all Cryptosporidium oocysts used in the studies were capable of initiating infection. The exponential with immunity model does not require such an assumption and includes the fractional Poisson as a special case. The fractional Poisson model is an upper bound of the exponential with immunity model and applies when all oocysts are capable of initiating infection. The beta Poisson model does not allow an immune human subpopulation; thus infection probability approaches 100% as dose becomes huge. All three of these models predict significantly (>10x) greater risk at the low doses that consumers might receive if exposed through drinking water or other environmental exposure (e.g., 72% vs. 4% infection probability for a one oocyst dose) than previously predicted. This new insight into Cryptosporidium risk suggests additional inactivation and removal via treatment may be needed to meet any specified risk target, such as a suggested 10(-4) annual risk of Cryptosporidium infection.


英文关键词Beta-Poisson;Cryptosporidium;dose-response;exponential with immunity;fractional Poisson
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000388984900011
来源期刊RISK ANALYSIS
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/56987
作者单位US EPA, Off Water, Washington, DC 20460 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Messner, Michael J.,Berger, Philip. Cryptosporidium Infection Risk: Results of New Dose-Response Modeling[J]. 美国环保署,2016,36(10):1969-1982.
APA Messner, Michael J.,&Berger, Philip.(2016).Cryptosporidium Infection Risk: Results of New Dose-Response Modeling.RISK ANALYSIS,36(10),1969-1982.
MLA Messner, Michael J.,et al."Cryptosporidium Infection Risk: Results of New Dose-Response Modeling".RISK ANALYSIS 36.10(2016):1969-1982.
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