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The use of materials and the generation of waste are linked to economic activities and in many projections these are assumed to be a constant ratio of the economic activities. This may be the case considering detailed economic activities and unchanged technology. However, the assumption of constant coefficients is questionable when linking material use and waste generation to aggregated economic activities. Therefore, in this paper, econometrics is used to test the assumption of constant waste coefficients empirically. The analyses show that an assumption of constant waste coefficients is not supported, generally, and a model allowing for trendwise changing coefficients is developed and used for projections of waste and material flows in 25 European countries. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.