气候变化领域集成服务门户

This paper quantifies the impacts of inundation risk and soil salinization on the family structure and income of coastal households in Bangladesh. The analysis is based on a household decision model that relates spatial deployment of working-age, migration-capable members to inundation and salinization threats. The empirical analysis uses appropriate estimation techniques, including adjustments for spatial autocorrelation. The findings are consistent with a model that treats urban migration of working-age family members as both an income source and the only feasible form of disaster insurance for coastal households. Greater inundation risk unambiguously decreases the rural household share of working-age members, while the direction of the salinity effect depends on households' income elasticity of demand for disaster insurance. The econometric results suggest that this elasticity is significantly greater than one, yielding higher rural household shares of working-age members in areas with higher salinity (ceteris paribus). Both increased inundation risk and greater salinity increase the incidence of extreme poverty among coastal households. However, powerful poverty reduction results for market access indicate that road improvements would provide an important countervailing force. The benefits of increased market access for coastal households are present with or without inundation and salinization threats, making such investments an attractive no-regret option.