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DOI	10.1002/esp.5868
	Debris-flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path
	Konz, Anna Lena; Hirschberg, Jacob; Mcardell, Brian W.; Mirus, Benjamin B.; de Haas, Tjalling; Bartelt, Perry; Molnar, Peter
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0197-9337
EISSN	1096-9837
英文摘要	Debris-flow volumes can increase along their flow path by entraining sediment stored in the channel bed and banks, thus also increasing hazard potential. Theoretical considerations, laboratory experiments and field investigations all indicate that the saturation conditions of the sediment along the flow path can greatly influence the amount of sediment entrained. However, this process is usually not considered for practical applications. This study aims to close this gap by combining runout and hydrological models into a predictive framework that is calibrated and tested using unique observations of sediment erosion and debris-flow properties available at a Swiss debris-flow observation station (Illgraben). To this end, hourly water input to the erodible channel is predicted using a simple, process-based hydrological model, and the resulting water saturation level in the upper sediment layer of the channel is modelled based on a Hortonian infiltration concept. Debris-flow entrainment is then predicted using the RAMMS debris-flow runout model. We find a strong correlation between the modelled saturation level of the sediment on the flow path and the channel-bed erodibility for single-surge debris-flow events with distinct fronts, indicating that the modelled water content is a good predictor for erosion simulated in RAMMS. Debris-flow properties with more complex flow behaviour (e.g., multiple surges or roll waves) are not as well predicted using this procedure, indicating that more physically complete models are necessary. Finally, we demonstrate how this modelling framework can be used for climate change impact assessment and show that earlier snowmelt may shift the peak of the debris-flow season to earlier in the year. Our novel modelling framework provides a plausible approach to reproduce saturation-dependent entrainment and thus better constrain event volumes for current and future hazard assessment. We developed a predictive modelling framework to estimate bed erodibility based on antecedent saturation of the channel bed. The modelled saturation conditions and the RAMMS-calibrated bed erodibility exhibit a strong correlation when debris flows adhere to typical flow patterns, making the proposed framework a promising tool for hazard assessments under climate change. image
英文关键词	antecedent saturation conditions; climate change; debris flows; entrainment; infiltration; modelling; RAMMS; revised Horton infiltration model
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS类目	Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001225383300001
来源期刊	EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/310031
作者单位	Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; United States Department of the Interior; United States Geological Survey; Utrecht University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Konz, Anna Lena,Hirschberg, Jacob,Mcardell, Brian W.,et al. Debris-flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path[J],2024.
APA	Konz, Anna Lena.,Hirschberg, Jacob.,Mcardell, Brian W..,Mirus, Benjamin B..,de Haas, Tjalling.,...&Molnar, Peter.(2024).Debris-flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path.EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS.
MLA	Konz, Anna Lena,et al."Debris-flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path".EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS (2024).