气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The potential range of west Asian apple species Malus orientalis Uglitzk. under climate change

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DOI	10.1186/s12870-024-05081-w
	The potential range of west Asian apple species Malus orientalis Uglitzk. under climate change
	Walas, Lukasz; Alipour, Shirin; Haq, Shiekh Marifatul; Alamri, Saud
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1471-2229
起始页码	24
结束页码	1
卷号	24 期号:1
英文摘要	The wild relatives of cultivated apples would be an ideal source of diversity for breeding new varieties, which could potentially grow in diverse habitats shaped by climate change. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the potential distribution of these species. The aim of the presented work was the understand the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution and habitat fragmentation of Caucasian crab apple (Malus orientalis Uglitzk.) and the designation of areas of high interest according to climatic conditions. We used the MaxEnt models and Morphological-Spatial Analysis (MSPA) to evaluate the potential distribution, suitability changes, habitat fragmentation, and connectivity throughout the species range in Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Russia, and Iran. The results revealed that the potentially suitable range of M. orientalis encompasses 858,877 km(2), 635,279 km(2) and 456,795 km(2) under the present, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The range fragmentation analysis demonstrated a notable shift in the edge/core ratio, which increased from 50.95% in the current scenario to even 67.70% in the future. The northern part of the range (Armenia, northern Georgia, southern Russia), as well as the central and western parts of Hyrcania will be a core of the species range with suitable habitats and a high connectivity between M. orientalis populations and could work as major refugia for the studied species. However, in the Zagros and central Turkey, the potential range will shrink due to the lack of suitable climatic conditions, and the edge/core ratio will grow. In the southern part of the range, a decline of M. orientalis habitats is expected due to changing climatic conditions. The future outlook suggests that the Hyrcanian forest and the Caucasus region could serve as important refuges for M. orientalis. This study helps to understand spatial changes in species' range in response to climate change and can help develop conservation strategies. This is all the more important given the species' potential use in future breeding programs aimed at enriching the gene pool of cultivated apple varieties.
英文关键词	Caucasian crab apple; Habitat suitability; Range fragmentation; SDM; West Asia
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Plant Sciences
WOS类目	Plant Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001217621400004
来源期刊	BMC PLANT BIOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/310014
作者单位	Polish Academy of Sciences; Ilia State University; King Saud University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Walas, Lukasz,Alipour, Shirin,Haq, Shiekh Marifatul,et al. The potential range of west Asian apple species Malus orientalis Uglitzk. under climate change[J],2024,24(1).
APA	Walas, Lukasz,Alipour, Shirin,Haq, Shiekh Marifatul,&Alamri, Saud.(2024).The potential range of west Asian apple species Malus orientalis Uglitzk. under climate change.BMC PLANT BIOLOGY,24(1).
MLA	Walas, Lukasz,et al."The potential range of west Asian apple species Malus orientalis Uglitzk. under climate change".BMC PLANT BIOLOGY 24.1(2024).