气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling the effects of potential climate change on the dynamics of multi-species mountain pastures: A case study in Gran Paradiso National Park, Italy

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.agsy.2024.103942
	Modelling the effects of potential climate change on the dynamics of multi-species mountain pastures: A case study in Gran Paradiso National Park, Italy
	Morgese, S.; Casale, F.; Movedi, E.; Confalonieri, R.; Bocchiola, D.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0308-521X
EISSN	1873-2267
起始页码	217
卷号	217
英文摘要	CONTEXT: Pasture dynamics of Alpine areas are linked to the complex cryospheric hydrology of Alpine catchment and to the interspecies competition, which are in turn expected to change remarkably under prospective global warming scenarios. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at assessing the impact of climate change on the productivity of mountain pastures in the Gran Paradiso National Park (Italy). METHODS: The hydrological model Poli-Hydro was used, coupled with the Poli-Pasture model, able to simulate pasture growth, which was further integrated with CoSMo model to consider interspecific competition. Two (competing) species were chosen for low altitude LowAlt areas (below 1800 m asl), Trifolium alpinum and Dactylis glomerata , and two for high altitude HighAlt areas (above 1800 m asl), Festuca rubra and Nardus stricta . Model tuning and evaluation were performed against estimates of leaf area index ( LAI ), derived from satellite imagery during 2005 - 2019. Then, climate change impacts were projected until 2100 by considering four IPCC AR6 scenarios and six GCMs. Target variables included a set of agroclimatic indices, LAI and pasture yield. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Due to the projected increase in temperatures during the XXI century, a measurable potential increase in productivity would be expected, especially in the highest areas (up to +97% by 2050, and + 123% by 2100 for the SSP5 - 8.5 scenario). The relative abundance of pasture species appears to remain mostly stable; at most, the species with higher fodder value even increases slightly. This suggests that a loss in the overall quality of biomass should not occur. These results provide preliminary evidence for the potential development of livestock farming, and thus of a relevant part of the economy in the valleys, at higher altitudes than now. However, to a certain extent pasture performance could be threatened by the projected reduction in summer rainfall, and possibly spreading of pests with increasing temperature. SIGNIFICANCE: The results obtained here could be useful for policy makers, and scientists in the field of pasture/ grasslands management, to depict scenarios of future productivity, and to support redefinition of periods, and areas designated for grazing activities in the mountains.
英文关键词	Pasture modelling; Agroclimatic indices; Alpine catchments; Climate change; Gran Paradiso National Park
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
WOS类目	Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001217174300001
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/310006
作者单位	Polytechnic University of Milan; IUSS PAVIA; University of Milan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Morgese, S.,Casale, F.,Movedi, E.,et al. Modelling the effects of potential climate change on the dynamics of multi-species mountain pastures: A case study in Gran Paradiso National Park, Italy[J],2024,217.
APA	Morgese, S.,Casale, F.,Movedi, E.,Confalonieri, R.,&Bocchiola, D..(2024).Modelling the effects of potential climate change on the dynamics of multi-species mountain pastures: A case study in Gran Paradiso National Park, Italy.AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,217.
MLA	Morgese, S.,et al."Modelling the effects of potential climate change on the dynamics of multi-species mountain pastures: A case study in Gran Paradiso National Park, Italy".AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 217(2024).