气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The past, present, and future of predator-prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm-endotherm niche overlap

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DOI	10.1002/ece3.11067
	The past, present, and future of predator-prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm-endotherm niche overlap
	Hill, Jessica L.; Grisnik, Matthew; Hanscom, Ryan J.; Sukumaran, Jeet; Higham, Timothy E.; Clark, Rulon W.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2045-7758
起始页码	14
结束页码	3
卷号	14 期号:3
英文摘要	Climate change has the potential to disrupt species interactions across global ecosystems. Ectotherm-endotherm interactions may be especially prone to this risk due to the possible mismatch between the species in physiological response and performance. However, few studies have examined how changing temperatures might differentially impact species' niches or available suitable habitat when they have very different modes of thermoregulation. An ideal system for studying this interaction is the predator-prey system. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to characterize the niche overlap and examine biogeography in past and future climate conditions of prairie rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridis) and Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), an endotherm-ectotherm pair typifying a predator-prey species interaction. Our models show a high niche overlap between these two species (D = 0.863 and I = 0.979) and further affirm similar paleoecological distributions during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (MH). Under future climate change scenarios, we found that prairie rattlesnakes may experience a reduction in overall suitable habitat (RCP 2.6 = -1.82%, 4.5 = -4.62%, 8.5 = -7.34%), whereas Ord's kangaroo rats may experience an increase (RCP 2.6 = 9.8%, 4.5 = 11.71%, 8.5 = 8.37%). We found a shared trend of stable suitable habitat at northern latitudes but reduced suitability in southern portions of the range, and we propose future monitoring and conservation be focused on those areas. Overall, we demonstrate a biogeographic example of how interacting ectotherm-endotherm species may have mismatched responses under climate change scenarios and the models presented here can serve as a starting point for further investigation into the biogeography of these systems. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to characterize the niche overlap and examine biogeography in past and future climate conditions of prairie rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridis) and Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), an endotherm-ectotherm pair typifying a predator-prey species interaction. As temperatures rise, there is potentially greater risk of disruption in these systems due to a differing physiological response to changing conditions.image
英文关键词	climate change; ecological niche modeling; predator-prey interactions; rattlesnake; small mammal
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS类目	Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS记录号	WOS:001175763200001
来源期刊	ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309997
作者单位	California State University System; San Diego State University; Tennessee State University; Coastal Carolina University; University of California System; University of California Riverside
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hill, Jessica L.,Grisnik, Matthew,Hanscom, Ryan J.,et al. The past, present, and future of predator-prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm-endotherm niche overlap[J],2024,14(3).
APA	Hill, Jessica L.,Grisnik, Matthew,Hanscom, Ryan J.,Sukumaran, Jeet,Higham, Timothy E.,&Clark, Rulon W..(2024).The past, present, and future of predator-prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm-endotherm niche overlap.ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION,14(3).
MLA	Hill, Jessica L.,et al."The past, present, and future of predator-prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm-endotherm niche overlap".ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION 14.3(2024).