气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries

CCPortal

DOI	10.1371/journal.pntd.0012158
	Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries
	Wang, Yawen; Li, Conglu; Zhao, Shi; Wei, Yuchen; Li, Kehang; Jiang, Xiaoting; Ho, Janice; Ran, Jinjun; Han, Lefei; Zee, Benny Chung-ying; Chong, Ka Chun
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1935-2735
起始页码	18
结束页码	4
卷号	18 期号:4
英文摘要	Vector-borne infectious disease such as dengue fever (DF) has spread rapidly due to more suitable living environments. Considering the limited studies investigating the disease spread under climate change in South and Southeast Asia, this study aimed to project the DF transmission potential in 30 locations across four South and Southeast Asian countries. In this study, weekly DF incidence data, daily mean temperature, and rainfall data in 30 locations in Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand from 2012 to 2020 were collected. The effects of temperature and rainfall on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of DF transmission were examined using generalized additive models. Projections of location-specific Rt from 2030s to 2090s were determined using projected temperature and rainfall under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and the peak DF transmissibility and epidemic duration in the future were estimated. According to the results, the projected changes in the peak Rt and epidemic duration varied across locations, and the most significant change was observed under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Under SSP585, the country-specific peak Rt was projected to decrease from 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.39-1.91), 2.60 (1.89-3.57), and 1.41 (1.22-1.64) in 2030s to 1.22 (0.98-1.51), 2.09 (1.26-3.47), and 1.37 (0.83-2.27) in 2090s in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, respectively. Yet, the peak Rt in Sri Lanka changed slightly from 2030s to 2090s under SSP585. The epidemic duration in Singapore and Malaysia was projected to decline under SSP585. In conclusion, the change of peak DF transmission potential and disease outbreak duration would vary across locations, particularly under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Interventions should be considered to slow down global warming as well as the potential increase in DF transmissibility in some locations of South and Southeast Asia. Climate change has a significant impact worldwide, including the proliferation of infectious diseases in tropical areas. While the warmer and more humid living conditions in these regions are generally considered favorable for the transmission of vector-borne diseases, we argue that the effects of climate change on DF infection may vary across different locations. Unlike previous studies focusing primarily on the disease incidence, this study aims to estimate changes in peak DF transmissibility and the duration of disease epidemics in the future. By analyzing data from 30 locations in four tropical countries, we have found that changes in DF transmissibility and epidemic duration exhibit variations both within and between countries, particularly under the scenarios of moderate to high greenhouse gas emissions. In light of these findings, we recommend conducting location-specific evaluations of DF transmissibility under the influence of climate change, as well as implementing targeted interventions to mitigate the potential increase in DF transmission rates in specific tropical locations.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Infectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
WOS类目	Infectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
WOS记录号	WOS:001214090800005
来源期刊	PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309946
作者单位	Chinese University of Hong Kong; Chinese University of Hong Kong; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; Tianjin Medical University; University of Hong Kong; Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Shanghai Jiao Tong University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Yawen,Li, Conglu,Zhao, Shi,et al. Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries[J],2024,18(4).
APA	Wang, Yawen.,Li, Conglu.,Zhao, Shi.,Wei, Yuchen.,Li, Kehang.,...&Chong, Ka Chun.(2024).Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries.PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES,18(4).
MLA	Wang, Yawen,et al."Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries".PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES 18.4(2024).