气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Submesoscale-Permitting Physical/Biogeochemical Future Projections for the Main Hawaiian Islands

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2023MS003855
	Submesoscale-Permitting Physical/Biogeochemical Future Projections for the Main Hawaiian Islands
	Friedrich, T.; Powell, B. S.; Gunnarson, J. L.; Liu, G.; Giardina, S. F.; Stuecker, M. F.; Hosekova, L.; Feloy, K.; Stock, C. A.
发表日期	2024
EISSN	1942-2466
起始页码	16
结束页码	2
卷号	16 期号:2
英文摘要	Global climate models provide useful tools to forecast large-scale anthropogenic trends and the impacts on ocean physics and marine biology and chemistry. Due to coarse spatial resolution, they typically lack the ability to represent important regional processes while underestimating mesoscale variability and vertical mixing. This means they provide limited value when it comes to regional climate projections. We developed a regional submesoscale-permitting physical/biogeochemical model to dynamically downscale the output of a CMIP6 Earth System Model for three different Socioeconomic Pathways for the main Hawaiian Islands. We describe the methodology for downscaling the CMIP6 ocean physics and biogeochemistry along with atmospheric conditions in order to offline nest a regional model. We expect the large-scale spatial and temporal features of the global model to be retained by the regional model, while adding representation of the regional processes that are crucial to understanding climate change on a local scale. We compare the regional model representation against both observed data and a regional reanalysis over the first two decades of the century. We show that the regional model maintains the large-scale trends and interannual variability provided by the CMIP6 model while well-representing the regional dynamics that drive the short-term variability. To better illustrate the benefit of the downscaling, we present preliminary analysis of the downscaled results to examine climate impacts on the island corals that are not resolved by the global models. This analysis reveals that coastal corals are likely to experience unprecedented ocean acidification and substantial warming over the course of the century. Climate models play an important role in projecting the changes in the ocean that may result from human-induced climate change; however, these models lack the ability to represent critical features important to regional localities. This means that high-resolution regional models are required to understand the impacts of climate change important to local communities. We describe how to downscale climate model solutions such that they can be used by high-resolution regional models to project local impacts of climate change. Our application is for the main Hawaiian Islands in the Pacific ocean that are highly dynamic but are missing from climate models. We also provide preliminary results of these projections that show regional impact on the island corals due to climate change. The first dynamically downscaled submesoscale permitting future climate projections for the main Hawaiian Islands are presented A careful treatment of global model output is critical to capture essential local oceanographic characteristics Hawai'i's near-surface ocean is likely to experience unprecedented acidification and substantial warming over the course of the century
英文关键词	downscaling; future projection; Hawaii; ocean acidification; mesoscale; global warming
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001169266200001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309937
作者单位	University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Friedrich, T.,Powell, B. S.,Gunnarson, J. L.,et al. Submesoscale-Permitting Physical/Biogeochemical Future Projections for the Main Hawaiian Islands[J],2024,16(2).
APA	Friedrich, T..,Powell, B. S..,Gunnarson, J. L..,Liu, G..,Giardina, S. F..,...&Stock, C. A..(2024).Submesoscale-Permitting Physical/Biogeochemical Future Projections for the Main Hawaiian Islands.JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS,16(2).
MLA	Friedrich, T.,et al."Submesoscale-Permitting Physical/Biogeochemical Future Projections for the Main Hawaiian Islands".JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS 16.2(2024).