气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Statistical Analysis of Climate Trends and Impacts on Groundwater Sustainability in the Lower Indus Basin

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/su16010441
	Statistical Analysis of Climate Trends and Impacts on Groundwater Sustainability in the Lower Indus Basin
	Ahmed, Waqas; Ahmed, Suhail; Punthakey, Jehangir F.; Dars, Ghulam Hussain; Ejaz, Muhammad Shafqat; Qureshi, Abdul Latif; Mitchell, Michael
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2071-1050
起始页码	16
结束页码	1
卷号	16 期号:1
英文摘要	Agricultural intensification is increasing global demand for water, with groundwater especially susceptible given its year-round reliability. Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge exacerbate uncertainties for future access and use, especially for large aquifers across alluvial plains such as the Indus Basin of Pakistan. To generate better understanding of climate change impacts on groundwater balances in such contexts, we used MODFLOW 2005 to quantify the groundwater budget of the Northern Rohri Canal Command Area under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climatic scenarios, while also taking climatic regionalisation into account. Under a baseline scenario, total annual pumping in the northern Rohri command was estimated to be 3.619 billion cubic metres (BCM), and the total net loss in storage over the simulation period from October 2010 to April 2014 was estimated at 1.244 BCM per year. By 2047, net decline in storage is projected to more than double to 2.185 per year under RCP 4.5 scenario and 2.214 under RCP 8.5. Our estimates suggest that a sustainable yield across the command area should be managed at approximately 3 +/- 0.3 BCM per year to ensure sufficient adaptive reserves of groundwater for access during times of drought and inadequate surface supply, while also reducing waterlogging impacts from high watertables. This first-time estimate of sustainable yield provides irrigation system managers with an overall guide from which divisional-scale measures to achieve the goal can be identified through stakeholder engagement.
英文关键词	groundwater; climate change; Mann-Kendall; Sen's slope; RCPs
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:001140478000001
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309844
作者单位	Mehran University Engineering & Technology; University of Stuttgart; Charles Sturt University; Ned University of Engineering & Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ahmed, Waqas,Ahmed, Suhail,Punthakey, Jehangir F.,et al. Statistical Analysis of Climate Trends and Impacts on Groundwater Sustainability in the Lower Indus Basin[J],2024,16(1).
APA	Ahmed, Waqas.,Ahmed, Suhail.,Punthakey, Jehangir F..,Dars, Ghulam Hussain.,Ejaz, Muhammad Shafqat.,...&Mitchell, Michael.(2024).Statistical Analysis of Climate Trends and Impacts on Groundwater Sustainability in the Lower Indus Basin.SUSTAINABILITY,16(1).
MLA	Ahmed, Waqas,et al."Statistical Analysis of Climate Trends and Impacts on Groundwater Sustainability in the Lower Indus Basin".SUSTAINABILITY 16.1(2024).