气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): False springs and spring phenology: Propagating effects of downscaling technique and training data

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DOI	10.1002/joc.8438
	False springs and spring phenology: Propagating effects of downscaling technique and training data
	Wootten, Adrienne M.; Dixon, Keith W.; Adams-Smith, Dennis J.; McPherson, Renee A.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
起始页码	44
结束页码	6
卷号	44 期号:6
英文摘要	Projected changes to spring phenological indicators (such as first leaf and first bloom) are of importance to assessing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and species. The risk of false springs (when a killing freeze occurs after plants of interest bloom), which can cause ecological and economic damage, is also projected to change across much of the United States. Given the coarse nature of global climate models, downscaled climate projections have commonly been used to assess local changes in spring phenological indices. Few studies that examine the influence of the sources of uncertainty sources in the downscaling approach on projections of phenological changes. This study examines the influence of sources of uncertainty on projections of spring phenological indicators and false spring risk using the South Central United States. The downscaled climate projections were created using three statistical downscaling techniques applied with three gridded observation datasets as training data and three global climate models. This study finds that projections of spring phenological indicators and false spring risk are primarily sensitive to the choice of global climate models. However, this study also finds that the formulation of the downscaling approach can cause errors representing the daily low-temperature distribution, which can cause errors in false spring risk by failing to capture the timing between the last spring freeze and the first bloom. One should carefully consider the downscaling approach used when using downscaled climate projections to assess changes to spring phenology and false spring risk.
英文关键词	climate change; climate impacts; downscaling; spring phenology; uncertainty
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001185455400001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309789
作者单位	University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wootten, Adrienne M.,Dixon, Keith W.,Adams-Smith, Dennis J.,et al. False springs and spring phenology: Propagating effects of downscaling technique and training data[J],2024,44(6).
APA	Wootten, Adrienne M.,Dixon, Keith W.,Adams-Smith, Dennis J.,&McPherson, Renee A..(2024).False springs and spring phenology: Propagating effects of downscaling technique and training data.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,44(6).
MLA	Wootten, Adrienne M.,et al."False springs and spring phenology: Propagating effects of downscaling technique and training data".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 44.6(2024).