气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evolution of the European offshore renewable energy resource under multiple climate change scenarios and forecasting horizons via CMIP6

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DOI	10.1016/j.enconman.2023.118058
	Evolution of the European offshore renewable energy resource under multiple climate change scenarios and forecasting horizons via CMIP6
	Barkanov, Egor; Penalba, Markel; Martinez, Abel; Martinez-Perurena, Ander; Zarketa-Astigarraga, Ander; Iglesias, Gregorio
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0196-8904
EISSN	1879-2227
起始页码	301
卷号	301
英文摘要	The design of the different offshore renewable energy (ORE) technologies depends on the characteristics of wind/wave resources. However, these characteristics are not stationary under climate change. In this study the evolution of European offshore wave/wind resources is assessed under mid- and high-emissions scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and three forecasting horizons including the near (2023-2032), mid (2041-2050) and long term (2091-2100). The novelties lie in: (i) the concurrent analysis of wind and wave resources, (ii) the use of data with a 3-hour temporal resolution, and (iii) the local-scale statistical analysis. Results show significant variations along the 21st century, with an overall decline in average wind and wave conditions. Importantly, and somewhat counter-intuitively, much of the Atlantic coast of continental Europe experiences increasing extremes in the high-emissions scenario. For the local-scale statistical analysis, the focus is on five wind farm sites, commissioned or in planning. In the highemissions scenario, the 99th and 99.99th percentiles decrease in three of them and increase in the other two. The combination of decreasing averages and increasing extremes presents the worst-case scenario for ORE technology developers.
英文关键词	Offshore renewable energy resource; Climate change; Shared socioeconomic pathways; CMIP6; Global and local scales; Statistical analysis
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels ; Mechanics
WOS类目	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels ; Mechanics
WOS记录号	WOS:001152740800001
来源期刊	ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309611
作者单位	Mondragon Unibertsitatea; Basque Foundation for Science; University College Cork; University College Cork; University of Plymouth
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Barkanov, Egor,Penalba, Markel,Martinez, Abel,et al. Evolution of the European offshore renewable energy resource under multiple climate change scenarios and forecasting horizons via CMIP6[J],2024,301.
APA	Barkanov, Egor,Penalba, Markel,Martinez, Abel,Martinez-Perurena, Ander,Zarketa-Astigarraga, Ander,&Iglesias, Gregorio.(2024).Evolution of the European offshore renewable energy resource under multiple climate change scenarios and forecasting horizons via CMIP6.ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT,301.
MLA	Barkanov, Egor,et al."Evolution of the European offshore renewable energy resource under multiple climate change scenarios and forecasting horizons via CMIP6".ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT 301(2024).