气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Three hundred years of past and future changes for native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin-Historical flow alterations versus future climate change

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DOI	10.1111/ddi.13808
	Three hundred years of past and future changes for native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin-Historical flow alterations versus future climate change
	Friedrichs-Manthey, Martin; Langhans, Simone D.; Borgwardt, Florian; Hein, Thomas; Kling, Harald; Stanzel, Philipp; Jaehnig, Sonja C.; Domisch, Sami
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1366-9516
EISSN	1472-4642
起始页码	30
结束页码	4
卷号	30 期号:4
英文摘要	AimRivers belong to the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Historical anthropogenic alterations have, and future climate change will further affect rivers and the species therein. While many studies have projected climate change effects on species, little is known about the severity of these changes compared to historical alterations. Here, we used a unique 300-year time series of hydrological and climate data to explore the vulnerability of 48 native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin to past and potential future environmental changes.LocationUpper Danube River Basins (Germany and Austria).MethodsWe applied a climate niche factor analysis and calculated species-specific vulnerability estimates based on modelled and observed hydrological and climate data from 1800 to 2100. We compared the estimated species vulnerabilities between two historical time intervals (1800-1830 and 1900-1930) and a future time interval (2070-2100, including the two representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) to an observed reference time interval (1970-2000). In addition, we identified the main environmental drivers of species vulnerability and their change over the past 200 years and for the predicted 100 years in the future.ResultsOur results showed that (i) in the past, species vulnerability was mainly driven by changes in discharge, while (ii) future potential vulnerabilities would be due to temperature. Moreover, we found that (iii) future environmental conditions for riverine fish species driven by temperature would change at a similar magnitude as past hydrological changes, driven by anthropogenic river alterations. Future changes, projected for the RCP 4.5, would result in moderate species vulnerability, whereas for the RCP 8.5, the vulnerability for all species would substantially increase compared to the historical conditions.Main ConclusionAccounting for an extended timeline uncovers the extent of historical pressures and provides unprecedented opportunities to proactively plan conservation strategies that are necessary to address future challenges.
英文关键词	CENFA; climate change; COSERO; Danube; fish; flow alteration; freshwater; river
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:001142498000001
来源期刊	DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309480
作者单位	Leibniz Institut fur Gewasserokologie und Binnenfischerei (IGB); Free University of Berlin; Friedrich Schiller University of Jena; Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research (UFZ); University of Otago; Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA); BOKU University; BOKU University; Humboldt University of Berlin; Leibniz Institut fur Gewasserokologie und Binnenfischerei (IGB)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Friedrichs-Manthey, Martin,Langhans, Simone D.,Borgwardt, Florian,et al. Three hundred years of past and future changes for native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin-Historical flow alterations versus future climate change[J],2024,30(4).
APA	Friedrichs-Manthey, Martin.,Langhans, Simone D..,Borgwardt, Florian.,Hein, Thomas.,Kling, Harald.,...&Domisch, Sami.(2024).Three hundred years of past and future changes for native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin-Historical flow alterations versus future climate change.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,30(4).
MLA	Friedrichs-Manthey, Martin,et al."Three hundred years of past and future changes for native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin-Historical flow alterations versus future climate change".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 30.4(2024).