气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling

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DOI	10.3390/su16041548
	Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling
	Calheiros, Tomas; Beca, Pedro; Capela Lourenco, Tiago; Eggler, Lukas; Mediavilla, Margarita; Ferreras-Alonso, Noelia; Ramos-Diez, Ivan; Samso, Roger; Distefano, Tiziano; Pastor, Amandine
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2071-1050
起始页码	16
结束页码	4
卷号	16 期号:4
英文摘要	The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares.
英文关键词	hydropower potential; IAM (Integrated Assessment Models); SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways); renewable energy; climate change impacts; mitigation and adaptation
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:001168454000001
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309311
作者单位	Universidade de Lisboa; Universidad de Valladolid; University of Barcelona; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Centro de Investigacion Ecologica y Aplicaciones Forestales (CREAF-CERCA); University of Florence; INRAE
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Calheiros, Tomas,Beca, Pedro,Capela Lourenco, Tiago,et al. Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling[J],2024,16(4).
APA	Calheiros, Tomas.,Beca, Pedro.,Capela Lourenco, Tiago.,Eggler, Lukas.,Mediavilla, Margarita.,...&Pastor, Amandine.(2024).Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling.SUSTAINABILITY,16(4).
MLA	Calheiros, Tomas,et al."Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling".SUSTAINABILITY 16.4(2024).