气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing climate change impacts on water availability in Southern Portugal using a daily sequential soil-water budget model

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2024.244
	Assessing climate change impacts on water availability in Southern Portugal using a daily sequential soil-water budget model
	Nunes Martins, Tiago; Oliveira, Manuel Mendes; Portela, Maria Manuela; Leitao, Teresa Eira
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2040-2244
EISSN	2408-9354
英文摘要	Climate change poses a significant threat to water resources in southern Portugal. To understand the potential impacts on surface and groundwater resources, this study employed a daily sequential soil-water budget model (BALSEQ) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, spanning the periods 2020-2060 and 2061-2100. An analysis of meteorological observations and EURO-CORDEX climate projections showed a decline in annual rainfall, particularly under the RCP 8.5. Monthly rainfall patterns exhibited significant decreases occurring from March to June, while in December and January, rainfall is likely to increase in all RCP scenarios and respective time-windows. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) demonstrated an increase across all scenarios. BALSEQ model simulations showed a likely decrease in deep infiltration (Ip) and direct runoff (Ed) under both RCP scenarios. The river basins with the highest reductions in Ed and Ip are Mira, Barlavento, southern Guadiana, and Sotavento. For instance, Ed is projected to decrease by up to 87% in Guadiana (RCP 8.5 [2020-2060]). Similarly, Ip is projected to decrease by up to 60% in Sotavento (RCP 8.5 [2061-2100]). These findings highlight the need for adaptation and mitigation measures to preserve the region's water resources.
英文关键词	climate change; direct runoff; groundwater recharge; rainfall; Southern Portugal
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001234413500001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309291
作者单位	National Civil Engineering Laboratory; Universidade de Lisboa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nunes Martins, Tiago,Oliveira, Manuel Mendes,Portela, Maria Manuela,et al. Assessing climate change impacts on water availability in Southern Portugal using a daily sequential soil-water budget model[J],2024.
APA	Nunes Martins, Tiago,Oliveira, Manuel Mendes,Portela, Maria Manuela,&Leitao, Teresa Eira.(2024).Assessing climate change impacts on water availability in Southern Portugal using a daily sequential soil-water budget model.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE.
MLA	Nunes Martins, Tiago,et al."Assessing climate change impacts on water availability in Southern Portugal using a daily sequential soil-water budget model".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE (2024).