气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future fire-smoke PM2.5 health burden under climate change in Paraguay

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171356
	Future fire-smoke PM2.5 health burden under climate change in Paraguay
	Borchers-Arriagada, Nicolas; Schulz-Antipa, Paulina; Conte-Grand, Mariana
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
起始页码	924
卷号	924
英文摘要	Recent years have seen a rise in wildfire and extreme weather activity across the globe, which is projected to keep increasing with climate-induced conditions. Air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration, is heavily affected by PM2.5 emissions from wildfire activity. Paraguay has been historically suffering from fires, with an average of 2.3 million hectares burnt per year during the 2003-2021 period. Annual PM2.5 concentration in Paraguay is 13.2 mu g/m3, more than double the recommended by the WHO. We estimate that, historically, almost 40 % of fine air particulates can be attributed to fires. Using a random forest algorithm, we estimate future fire activity and fire related PM2.5 under different climate change scenarios. With global warming, we calculate that fire activity could increase by up to 120 % by 2100. Annual fire smoke PM2.5 from fires is expected to increase by 7.7 mu g/m3 by 2100. Under these conditions, Paraguay is expected to suffer an increase in 3500 deaths per year attributable to fire smoke PM2.5 by 2100. We estimate the economic cost of fire smoke-related mortality by 2100 at US $ 5600 million, equivalent to 2.6 % of Paraguay's GDP, excluding other health- and productivity-related impacts on society.
英文关键词	Wildfires; Fine particulate matter; Air pollution; Health costs; Paraguay; Climate change; Machine learning
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001208478800001
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309249
作者单位	University of Tasmania; Menzies Institute for Medical Research; The World Bank; The World Bank
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Borchers-Arriagada, Nicolas,Schulz-Antipa, Paulina,Conte-Grand, Mariana. Future fire-smoke PM2.5 health burden under climate change in Paraguay[J],2024,924.
APA	Borchers-Arriagada, Nicolas,Schulz-Antipa, Paulina,&Conte-Grand, Mariana.(2024).Future fire-smoke PM2.5 health burden under climate change in Paraguay.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,924.
MLA	Borchers-Arriagada, Nicolas,et al."Future fire-smoke PM2.5 health burden under climate change in Paraguay".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 924(2024).