气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Nonstationary coastal flood hazard analysis

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-024-06447-x
	Nonstationary coastal flood hazard analysis
	Jia, Yiming; Sasani, Mehrdad
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
起始页码	120
结束页码	8
卷号	120 期号:8
英文摘要	It is well known that the increase in coastal flood hazard is expected to continue due primarily to climate change. While, previous studies have advanced probabilistic approaches for estimating future coastal flood hazard, two seminal issues have received little attention: (1) sea level trend projections that arise as a consequence of climate change not being incorporated in nonstationary coastal flood frequency analysis and (2) traditional stationary approaches that estimate return periods are not suited for analysis of nonstationary water levels. In this paper, a regression approach for sea level rise estimation is proposed to detrend water levels. The peak-over-threshold approach is used to analyze the probabilistic behavior of detrended water levels via a generalized Pareto distribution. Two interpretations of return period-the expected waiting time until an exceedance event occurs and the time associated with the expected number of exceedance events equal to one-are elaborated in a nonstationary context. By incorporating the existing sea level trend projections and using two interpretations of return period, flood hazard curves with uncertainty (i.e., water levels vs. return periods) are developed to describe the probabilistic behavior of future coastal flood hazards. Two case studies are conducted: one for Boston, Massachusetts, and one for New York City, New York.
英文关键词	Coastal flooding; Sea level rise; Climate change; Return period; Peak-over-threshold; Generalized Pareto distribution; Linear regression; Boston; New York City
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001176550800001
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309229
作者单位	Northeastern University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jia, Yiming,Sasani, Mehrdad. Nonstationary coastal flood hazard analysis[J],2024,120(8).
APA	Jia, Yiming,&Sasani, Mehrdad.(2024).Nonstationary coastal flood hazard analysis.NATURAL HAZARDS,120(8).
MLA	Jia, Yiming,et al."Nonstationary coastal flood hazard analysis".NATURAL HAZARDS 120.8(2024).