气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Examining climate trends and patterns and their implications for agricultural productivity in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania

CCPortal

DOI	10.3389/fclim.2024.1346677
	Examining climate trends and patterns and their implications for agricultural productivity in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania
	Mugabe, Paschal; Kipkulei, Harison; Sieber, Stefan; Mhache, Emmanuel; Loehr, Katharina
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2624-9553
起始页码	6
卷号	6
英文摘要	Climate variability impacts various global challenges, including food security, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, and human well-being. However, climate patterns and trends and community perceptions at spatially-explicit levels have been minimally addressed. The spatial and temporal trends of climate conditions in Bagamoyo District in Tanzania were examined using historical (1983-2010) and projected (2022-2050) meteorological and climate model data, respectively. Community knowledge and experiences of past climate occurrences were included. The implications of projected climate change for regional agricultural production and food security were assessed. The study drew on empirical data obtained from household surveys conducted in seven villages in the district. Effectively, 309 households were randomly sampled across the villages to provide the perception of climate change and associated impacts on agriculture and livelihoods. Both qualitative and quantitative statistical techniques were employed to analyse the incidence, frequency, and intensity of regional extreme climate events. The meteorological and climate modelling data were subjected to trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator tests, and the present and projected spatial and temporal trends of climatic variables in the region were analysed. The household-based questionnaire results were combined with climate modelling and the literature to determine the implications of climate change for regional agricultural production and food security. The results revealed that local knowledge and climate model data strongly concur on regional climate changes. Furthermore, the region is highly likely to experience increased warming and decreased precipitation at varying magnitudes. The shifts in climate trends and patterns are anticipated to greatly impact agricultural production, affecting livelihoods and hampering food security efforts. Recommendations include adopting context-specific measures and tailored strategies for enhancing resilience throughout the entire region.
英文关键词	climate change; climate variability; temperature; rainfall; time series; food security; agriculture
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:001234984800001
来源期刊	FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309040
作者单位	University of Dar es Salaam; Leibniz Zentrum fur Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF); Humboldt University of Berlin; Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture & Technology; University of Augsburg
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mugabe, Paschal,Kipkulei, Harison,Sieber, Stefan,et al. Examining climate trends and patterns and their implications for agricultural productivity in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania[J],2024,6.
APA	Mugabe, Paschal,Kipkulei, Harison,Sieber, Stefan,Mhache, Emmanuel,&Loehr, Katharina.(2024).Examining climate trends and patterns and their implications for agricultural productivity in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania.FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE,6.
MLA	Mugabe, Paschal,et al."Examining climate trends and patterns and their implications for agricultural productivity in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania".FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE 6(2024).