气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The future of the Portuguese (SW Europe) most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change - Part I: Performance evaluation and shoreline evolution from a downscaled bias corrected wave climate ensemble

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DOI	10.1016/j.oceaneng.2024.117661
	The future of the Portuguese (SW Europe) most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change - Part I: Performance evaluation and shoreline evolution from a downscaled bias corrected wave climate ensemble
	Lemos, Gil; Bosnic, Ivana; Antunes, Carlos; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Soares, Pedro M. M.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0029-8018
EISSN	1873-5258
起始页码	302
卷号	302
英文摘要	Some of the most disruptive effects of climate change are projected to be felt along the coastlines. The combined effects of future changes in water levels and wave climate along coastal areas constitute one of the most serious threats to their sustainable evolution, compromising critical infrastructures, resources, ecosystems, and communities. Understanding long-term changes in coastal areas remains challenging, however, due to their multivariate and multi-time-and-space-scale nature. In this study, we propose an innovative methodology for a complete vulnerability assessment of sandy low-lying coastal areas, based on dynamic, ensemble-based projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In the current Part I study, the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and nearshore wave climate changes on future shoreline evolution are assessed at five keylocations along the Portuguese coastline. Longshore sediment transport (LST) projections are computed, and sedimentary imbalances are quantified. Overall, robust shoreline retreat of up to 300 m is projected, especially along the Portuguese northern and central coastal areas, with continued erosion driven mainly by sediment imbalance and SLR. The projected decrease in future nearshore wave energy is responsible for a slight alleviation in erosion trends, up to 6.33%, whereas the increase of northerly incoming waves is expected to lead to northward beach rotations along western Mainland Portugal. The resulting shoreline evolution, responsible for the loss of up to 0.786 km2 of dry land by 2100 along the 14 km of analysed coastline, is projected to threaten several Portuguese urban areas, calling for the implementation of adequate coastal management and adaptation plans, to reduce the impacts of climate change on population, infrastructures, livelihood, and ecosystems.
英文关键词	Climate change; Coastal areas; Performance evaluation; Climate projections; Shoreline evolution
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Oceanography
WOS类目	Engineering, Marine ; Engineering, Civil ; Engineering, Ocean ; Oceanography
WOS记录号	WOS:001222174200001
来源期刊	OCEAN ENGINEERING
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308983
作者单位	Universidade de Lisboa; University of Aegean; University of Bologna
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lemos, Gil,Bosnic, Ivana,Antunes, Carlos,et al. The future of the Portuguese (SW Europe) most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change - Part I: Performance evaluation and shoreline evolution from a downscaled bias corrected wave climate ensemble[J],2024,302.
APA	Lemos, Gil,Bosnic, Ivana,Antunes, Carlos,Vousdoukas, Michalis,Mentaschi, Lorenzo,&Soares, Pedro M. M..(2024).The future of the Portuguese (SW Europe) most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change - Part I: Performance evaluation and shoreline evolution from a downscaled bias corrected wave climate ensemble.OCEAN ENGINEERING,302.
MLA	Lemos, Gil,et al."The future of the Portuguese (SW Europe) most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change - Part I: Performance evaluation and shoreline evolution from a downscaled bias corrected wave climate ensemble".OCEAN ENGINEERING 302(2024).