气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change linked to drought in Southern Madagascar

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-024-00583-8
	Climate change linked to drought in Southern Madagascar
	Rigden, Angela; Golden, Christopher; Chan, Duo; Huybers, Peter
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2397-3722
起始页码	7
结束页码	1
卷号	7 期号:1
英文摘要	Southern Madagascar experienced a prolonged drought over the last five years, but whether these conditions are a manifestation of global climate change has been unclear. Here, we document trends beginning as early as 1980 towards a later rainy-season onset across three distinct remotely sensed indicators: precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness. All three indicators closely covary, particularly over the last decade when satellite observational resolution and accuracy is greatest. Furthermore, observed soil moisture trends early in the rainy season agree with the mean from CMIP6 historical and SSP5-8.5 simulations, but are distinct from pre-industrial control simulations, implicating anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing as the source of the trends. Physically, these models simulate a poleward migration of the mid-latitude jet that leads to a delay in the seasonal steering of storm tracks over Southern Madagascar. Soil moisture trends driven by anthropogenic forcing made the recent drought significantly more likely over 2017-2022 (p < 0.01), and such droughts are expected to become increasingly likely over this century. These results indicate that, although Madagascar has not substantially contributed to global greenhouse gas emissions, farmers in Southern Madagascar will need to adapt to drier conditions early in the rainy season as a consequence of global climate change.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001160666900001
来源期刊	NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308907
作者单位	University of California System; University of California Irvine; Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; University of Southampton; Harvard University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rigden, Angela,Golden, Christopher,Chan, Duo,et al. Climate change linked to drought in Southern Madagascar[J],2024,7(1).
APA	Rigden, Angela,Golden, Christopher,Chan, Duo,&Huybers, Peter.(2024).Climate change linked to drought in Southern Madagascar.NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE,7(1).
MLA	Rigden, Angela,et al."Climate change linked to drought in Southern Madagascar".NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 7.1(2024).