气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change-A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/biology13040240
	Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change-A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China
	Wang, Xiaofan; Wang, Xuhong; Li, Yun; Wu, Changhao; Zhao, Biao; Peng, Mingchun; Chen, Wen; Wang, Chongyun
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2079-7737
起始页码	13
结束页码	4
卷号	13 期号:4
英文摘要	Trachycarpus nanus is a national, second-class, rare and endangered plant in China, and a plant species endemic to Yunnan. This species has a high medicinal, ecological, and scientific value, but it is currently on the verge of extinction. Therefore, it is urgent to learn its extinction risk under global warming. We predict its multi-temporal distribution pattern based on the optimized MaxEnt model. The results show that precipitation is the most important factor. In the future, drastic climatic changes and human disturbances may lead to the extinction of this species, so it is necessary to strengthen the protection of this species using specific strategies. Climate change affects the geographical distribution of plant species. Rare Trachycarpus nanus with a narrow distribution range, high medicinal value and extremely small population is facing increasing extinction risks under global climate change. In this study, 96 recorded occurrences and 23 environmental factors are used to predict the potential suitable area of T. nanus based on the optimized MaxEnt (3.4.4) model and ArcGIS (10.7) software. The results show that when the parameters are FC = LQ and RM = 1, the MaxEnt model is optimal and AUC = 0.946. The distribution patterns were predicted in the past, present, and four future phases, i.e., 2021-2040 (2030), 2041-2060 (2050), 2061-2080 (2070), and 2081-2100 (2090). The main factors are the annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), temperature seasonality (bio4), precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16), and isothermality (bio3). The potential distribution of T. nanus is primarily concentrated in central Chuxiong, encompassing a total potential suitable area of 5.65 x 10(4) km(2). In historical periods, the total habitat area is smaller than that in the present. In the future, the potential suitable area is generally increased. The centroid analysis shows that T. nanus will move to a high-altitude area and to the southeast. But its dispersal capacity may not keep up with the climate change rate. Therefore, additional protection sites for this species should be appropriately established and the habitat connectivity should be enhanced.
英文关键词	Trachycarpus nanus; MaxEnt model; potential distribution area; climate change; ENMeval
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
WOS类目	Biology
WOS记录号	WOS:001211086500001
来源期刊	BIOLOGY-BASEL
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308714
作者单位	Yunnan University; Yunnan University; Yunnan University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Xiaofan,Wang, Xuhong,Li, Yun,et al. Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change-A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China[J],2024,13(4).
APA	Wang, Xiaofan.,Wang, Xuhong.,Li, Yun.,Wu, Changhao.,Zhao, Biao.,...&Wang, Chongyun.(2024).Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change-A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China.BIOLOGY-BASEL,13(4).
MLA	Wang, Xiaofan,et al."Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change-A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China".BIOLOGY-BASEL 13.4(2024).