气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk assessment of agricultural green water security in Northeast China under climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11430-023-1278-2
	Risk assessment of agricultural green water security in Northeast China under climate change
	Sun, Jingxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Wu, Yanfeng; Chen, Liwen; Qi, Peng; Hu, Boting; Xu, Yijun
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1674-7313
EISSN	1869-1897
英文摘要	Northeast China is an important base for grain production, dominated by rain-fed agriculture that relies on green water. However, in the context of global climate change, rising regional temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increasing drought frequency pose threats and challenges to agricultural green water security. This study provides a detailed assessment of the spatiotemporal characteristics and development trends of green water security risks in the Northeast region under the base period (2001-2020) and the future (2031-2090) climate change scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) using the green water scarcity (GWS) index based on raster-scale crop spatial distribution data, Delta downscaling bias-corrected ERA5 data, and CMIP6 multimodal data. During the base period, the green water risk-free zone for dry crops is mainly distributed in the center and east of the Northeast region (72.4% of the total area), the low-risk zone is primarily located in the center (14.0%), and the medium-risk (8.3%) and high-risk (5.3%) zones are mostly in the west. Under SSP245 and SSP585 future climate change scenarios, the green water security risk shows an overall expansion from the west to the center and east, with the low-risk zone increasing to 21.6% and 23.8%, the medium-risk zone increasing to 16.0% and 17.9%, and the high-risk zone increasing to 6.9% and 6.8%, respectively. Considering dry crops with GWS greater than 0.1 as in need of irrigation, the irrigated area increases from 27.6% (base period) to 44.5% (SSP245) and 48.6% (SSP585), with corresponding increases in irrigation water requirement (IWR) of 4.64 and 5.92 billion m3, respectively, which further exacerbates conflicts between supply and demand of agricultural water resources. In response to agricultural green water security risks, coping strategies such as evapotranspiration (ET)-based water resource management for dry crops and deficit irrigation are proposed. The results of this study can provide scientific basis and decision support for the development of Northeast irrigated agriculture and the construction planning of the national water network.
英文关键词	Climate change; Food security; Green water security risk; Irrigation water requirement; Green water scarcity
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001201486300001
来源期刊	SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308696
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Northeast Institute of Geography & Agroecology, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Northeast Institute of Geography & Agroecology, CAS; Louisiana State University System; Louisiana State University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Jingxuan,Zhang, Guangxin,Wu, Yanfeng,et al. Risk assessment of agricultural green water security in Northeast China under climate change[J],2024.
APA	Sun, Jingxuan.,Zhang, Guangxin.,Wu, Yanfeng.,Chen, Liwen.,Qi, Peng.,...&Xu, Yijun.(2024).Risk assessment of agricultural green water security in Northeast China under climate change.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES.
MLA	Sun, Jingxuan,et al."Risk assessment of agricultural green water security in Northeast China under climate change".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES (2024).