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DOI	10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100469
	Temporal fragmentation of the energy demand in Europe: Impact of climate change on the maneuverability of energy system
	Filahi, Hajar; Omrani, Hiba; Claudel, Sandra; Drobinski, Philippe
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2405-8807
起始页码	34
卷号	34
英文摘要	The energy demand in Europe is projected to be affected by climate change in the future. The heating needs are expected to decrease while the cooling needs are expected to increase.The study investigates the impact of climate change on the temporal fragmentation of heating and to a lesser extent cooling needs and its implication on the energy power system. Ten bias-corrected and downscaled simulations from CMIP6 at 25 x 25 km2 horizontal resolution over Europe have been used to estimate change in heating and cooling energy needs under four anthropogenic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), using heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) as proxies. Consistent with already published literature, here updated using the last CMIP6 simulation ensemble, the results show a large decrease of HDD over Europe and an increase of CDD under all scenarios. However, the study goes one step further by showing a fragmentation of the periods of heating needs during winter in the future which can potentially lead to a fragmentation of heating energy demand. In the worst-case scenario, periods of heating needs could be separated by up to 7 days, 9 times per winter. The cooling needs in summer are expected to be more frequent and last longer compared to the present climate. The fragmentation of temperature-sensitive energy needs for heating and to a lesser extent for cooling are expected to have an operational and economical impact on the balancing of the energy system.
英文关键词	Temperature-sensitive energy needs; Climate change impacts; Energy system flexibility
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001222695700001
来源期刊	CLIMATE SERVICES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308569
作者单位	Electricite de France (EDF); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Filahi, Hajar,Omrani, Hiba,Claudel, Sandra,et al. Temporal fragmentation of the energy demand in Europe: Impact of climate change on the maneuverability of energy system[J],2024,34.
APA	Filahi, Hajar,Omrani, Hiba,Claudel, Sandra,&Drobinski, Philippe.(2024).Temporal fragmentation of the energy demand in Europe: Impact of climate change on the maneuverability of energy system.CLIMATE SERVICES,34.
MLA	Filahi, Hajar,et al."Temporal fragmentation of the energy demand in Europe: Impact of climate change on the maneuverability of energy system".CLIMATE SERVICES 34(2024).