气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Emergent Constraints on Future Changes in Several Climate Variables and Extreme Indices from Global to Regional Scales

CCPortal

DOI	10.2151/sola.2024-017
	Emergent Constraints on Future Changes in Several Climate Variables and Extreme Indices from Global to Regional Scales
	Shiogama, Hideo; Hayashi, Michiya; Hirota, Nagio; Ogura, Tomoo
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1349-6476
起始页码	20
卷号	20
英文摘要	Climate change impact modelling studies often require not only mean temperature and precipitation but also other climate variables (e.g., solar radiation and wind speed) and extreme indices as input data. However, studies on observational constraints (emergent constraints) about these variables and indices are limited. Based on linearities of future climate change as functions of global warming levels and biases in recent global mean temperature trends in the simulations of 40 Earth system models (ESMs), the upper bounds of uncertainties in future changes of various variables (annual mean temperature, annual maximum daily maximum temperature, mean specific humidity, mean downward longwave radiation and specific humidity on days when annual maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) events occur) are successfully lowered in most regions of the world. We can also reduce inter-model variances of regional changes in mean precipitation, Rx1day, mean downward shortwave radiation, mean sea level pressure and mean surface wind speed in some areas. These results would be useful for climate change impact studies to consider whether they should weight ESMs or exclude some ESMs to prevent possible biases in impact assessments.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001218565700001
来源期刊	SOLA
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308538
作者单位	National Institute for Environmental Studies - Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shiogama, Hideo,Hayashi, Michiya,Hirota, Nagio,et al. Emergent Constraints on Future Changes in Several Climate Variables and Extreme Indices from Global to Regional Scales[J],2024,20.
APA	Shiogama, Hideo,Hayashi, Michiya,Hirota, Nagio,&Ogura, Tomoo.(2024).Emergent Constraints on Future Changes in Several Climate Variables and Extreme Indices from Global to Regional Scales.SOLA,20.
MLA	Shiogama, Hideo,et al."Emergent Constraints on Future Changes in Several Climate Variables and Extreme Indices from Global to Regional Scales".SOLA 20(2024).